Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses for the reduction factor of sheltering for radiation exposures

Abstract

Sheltering is one of the countermeasures used to mitigate radiation exposure during nuclear power plant accidents. The effectiveness of sheltering for inhalation exposure is often expressed by the reduction factor, which is defined as the ratio of the indoor to the outdoor cumulative radioactivity concentrations or doses. The indoor concentration is mainly controlled by the air exchange rate, penetration factor, and indoor deposition rate. Meanwhile, the air exchange rate depends on surrounding environmental conditions: the wind speed, leakage area normalised by the floor area of the house, and gross building coverage ratio. In this study, the ranges of the uncertainty of the reduction factors for particles and iodine in reactive gas form were investigated under various environmental conditions, and sensitivity analyses were conducted to understand the parameter with the most influence on the uncertainty of the reduction factor. From the results of the uncertainty analyses, the calculated reduction factor was highly variable depending on the environmental condition and the airtightness of the houses. The median and 95th percentile of the reduction factors for the older houses were 0.5 and 0.9 for particles and 0.07 and 0.4 for iodine in reactive gas form, respectively and these ranges were smaller for newer houses. From the results of the sensitivity analyses, the wind speed was the most influential parameter determining the reduction factor. Additionally, the wind speed was less influential for the reduction factor in newer houses.