Uncertainty Analysis on Hybrid Double Feedforward Neural Network Model for Sediment Load Estimation with LUBE Method

Abstract

The assessment of uncertainty prediction has become a necessity for most modeling studies within the hydrology community. This paper addresses uncertainty analysis on a novel hybrid double feedforward neural network (HDFNN) model for generating the sediment load prediction interval (PI). By using the Lower Upper Bound Estimation (LUBE) method, the lower and upper bounds are directly generated as outputs of neural network based models. Coverage Width-based Criterion (CWC) is employed as an objective function for searching high quality PIs. The LUBE-based model is then applied to estimate sediment loads of Muddy Creek in Montana of USA. Results demonstrate the suitability of HDFNN-LUBE model in producing PI in both 90% and 95% confidence levels (CL). It is capable of generating appropriate lower bounds of PIs with narrow intervals. Partitioning analysis reveals consistently excellent performances of HDFNN model in constructing PI in terms of low, medium and high loads. These results therefore verify the reliability and potentiality of the HDFNN model for sediment load estimation with uncertainty. LUBE shows its efficiency in uncertainty prediction as well, which could be used to quantify total uncertainty of data-driven models.