Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to compare the degree of uncertainty of the water scarcity footprint using the Monte Carlo statistical method and block bootstrap method. Using the hydrological data of a water drainage basin in Korea, characterization factors based on the available water remaining (AWARE) model were obtained. The uncertainties of the water scarcity footprint considering temporal variations in paddy rice production in Korea were estimated. The block bootstrap method gave five-times smaller percentage uncertainty values of the model output compared to that of the two different Monte Carlo statistical method scenarios. Incorrect estimation of the probability distribution of the AWARE characterization factor model is what causes the higher uncertainty in the water scarcity footprint value calculated by the Monte Carlo statistical method in this study. This is because AWARE characterization factor values partly follows discrete distribution with extreme value on one side. Therefore, this study suggests that the block bootstrap method is a better choice in analyzing uncertainty compared to the Monte Carlo statistical method when using the AWARE model to quantify the water scarcity footprint.
Highlights
Increasing interest in water footprints has led to the publication of the international water footprint standard, ISO 14046 [1]
Water consumption for paddy rice production only occurred during the irrigation season from April to September; the consumption differs from month to month
This study suggests that the block bootstrap method is a better choice in analyzing uncertainty compared to the MCS method in the case of estimating water scarcity footprint (WSF) using the available water remaining (AWARE) characterization factors (CFs) model
Summary
Increasing interest in water footprints has led to the publication of the international water footprint standard, ISO 14046 [1]. A water footprint consists of two major pillars: water quality degradation and water consumption [1,2]. From the perspective of a life cycle assessment (LCA), the emission and water consumption of a product and/or organization are called its life cycle inventory. The potential impact of environmental emissions is a function of the background concentration of the affected area. The potential impact of water consumption is a function of the water demand and availability in the affected area [3]. In the context of ISO 14046, the water scarcity footprint (WSF) is the potential impact associated with the quantity of water consumption, without considering the water quality [1,4]
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