Abstract
Sea-level rise (SLR) from global warming may have severe consequences for coastal cities, particularly when combined with predicted increases in the strength of tidal surges. Predicting the regional impact of SLR flooding is strongly dependent on the modelling approach and accuracy of topographic data. Here, the areas under risk of sea water flooding for London boroughs were quantified based on the projected SLR scenarios reported in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5) and UK climatic projections 2009 (UKCP09) using a tidally-adjusted bathtub modelling approach. Medium- to very high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) are used to evaluate inundation extents as well as uncertainties. Depending on the SLR scenario and DEMs used, it is estimated that 3%–8% of the area of Greater London could be inundated by 2100. The boroughs with the largest areas at risk of flooding are Newham, Southwark, and Greenwich. The differences in inundation areas estimated from a digital terrain model and a digital surface model are much greater than the root mean square error differences observed between the two data types, which may be attributed to processing levels. Flood models from SRTM data underestimate the inundation extent, so their results may not be reliable for constructing flood risk maps. This analysis provides a broad-scale estimate of the potential consequences of SLR and uncertainties in the DEM-based bathtub type flood inundation modelling for London boroughs.
Highlights
Floods from sea surge will have significant impacts on the world’s coastal zones, considering the projected sea-level rise (SLR) [1]
Our results show that Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation models (DEMs) underestimates the flooded areas compared to the higher according to the Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) DEMs and Ordnance Survey (OS) Terrain data, but they are not included in the flood inundation accuracy DEMs
Different digital elevation data have been tested for modelling the extent of SLR flood inundation for three different scenarios in the Greater London area
Summary
Floods from sea surge will have significant impacts on the world’s coastal zones, considering the projected sea-level rise (SLR) [1]. Recent reports from United Nation Environment Program (UNEP) indicate that one third of the coastal regions run a high risk of degradation, especially from infrastructure development and pollution. Given this magnitude of potential loss that a sea water flood could cause to human life, property, and the economy, flood inundation modelling in urbanized coastal regions is increasingly relevant. Planning and conservation practitioners require reliable scientific data to Remote Sens. Several approaches have been applied on regional and global scales to map the coastal flood levels to SLR [3,4]. Many flood models use fluid dynamics to simulate different hydrodynamic conditions
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