Ultra-short-term prediction of microgrid source load power considering weather characteristics and multivariate correlation

Abstract

Multiple microgrids interconnect to form a microgrid cluster. To fully exploit the comprehensive benefits of the microgrid cluster, it is imperative to optimize dispatch based on the matching degree between the sources and loads of each microgrid. The power of distributed energy sources such as wind and photovoltaic systems and the sensitive loads in microgrids is related to the regional weather characteristics. Given the relatively small geographical scope of microgrid areas and the fact that distributed energy sources and loads within the grid share the same weather characteristics, simultaneous ultra-short-term forecasting of power for both sources and loads is essential in the same environmental context. Firstly, the introduction of the multi-variable uniform information coefficient (MV-UIC) is proposed for extracting the correlation between weather characteristics and the sequences of source and load power. Subsequently, the application of factor analysis (FA) is introduced to reduce the dimensionality of input feature variables. Drawing inspiration from the concept of combination forecasting models, a combined forecasting model based on Error Back Propagation Training (BP), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (BiLSTM) is constructed. This model is established on the MV-UIC-FA foundation for the joint ultra-short-term forecasting of source and load power in microgrids. Simulation is conducted using the DTU 7K 47-bus system as an example to analyze the accuracy, applicability, and effectiveness of the proposed joint forecasting method for sources and loads.