Abstract
Significance All-out war has brought economic devastation unprecedented in both scale and depth. More than a year later, its extent is readily apparent in every major part of Ukraine’s economy. Yet it seems past the worst and to have achieved relative stability, albeit with questions whether that stability is sustainable and when more-or-less-lasting upward trends may follow. Impacts Resumed economic growth should help ease inordinate fiscal pressures and so reduce the government’s dependence on external financing. Further contraction would probably not hurt the government politically, absent a parallel relapse into full financial or currency crisis. The IMF will pester the central bank to return to a floating exchange rate and inflation targeting, unless new shocks cause destabilisation.
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