Abstract
Serious storm surge disasters are frequently caused by the higher tidal level and concomitant huge wave heights toward shoreline. In order to make up the defects of the warning level, which cannot thoroughly describes the magnitude of storm surge, a Poisson Bi-variate Lognormal Distribution (PBLD) is presented to predict typhoon surge intensity. The PBLD model can take account of the joint distribution of bi-variate extreme environmental conditions as well as the typhoon frequency. On the basis of observed tidal level and simultaneously occurred wave height series that are sampled from typhoon processes in Qingdao coastal area of China since 1949, the return periods of typhoon surge are estimated. A new criterion is put forward to classify intensity grade of disaster-induced typhoon surges. Practical cases indicate that the new criterion is clear in probability concept, easy to operate, and fits to the calculation of typhoon surge intensity. The procedure with the proposed statistical model will be a reference for the disaster mitigation in the other coastal area influenced by typhoons.
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