Typhoon related cascading fault chain dynamic evolution model and risk mitigation in distribution systems

Abstract

The resilience of distribution system is severely influenced by typhoon disasters and the secondary disasters such as floods and debris flows. The cascading propagation of typhoon disasters, coupled with the cascading propagation of faults in distribution systems, creates a dual-coupling dynamic that results in large-scale faults. The key to mitigating losses from typhoon-related cascading faults lies in understanding the potential paths of cascading propagation and taking corresponding measures to preemptively interrupt the chain propagation. In this paper, based on the analysis of actual typhoon related fault data of Guangzhou, China, we created the knowledge graph of the typhoon related cascading fault chains and modeled the chain formation mechanism, successfully integrating the distribution systems and the typhoon disaster propagation systems. We also achieved the dynamic evolution of typhoon related cascading fault chains by using system dynamics. In the case studies of Guangzhou, we selected three typical typhoon related fault scenarios, and then the proposed model is utilized to capture the fault cascading pathway, which can help mitigate typhoon related fault risks in distribution systems.