Abstract
Since 1972 Rita typhoon attacked on Dalian Port and induced severe catastrophe, we were studied on statistical prediction model of typhoon induced wave height and wind speed. With an increasing tendency of the natural hazards frequency and intensity, risk assessment of some design codes for coastal defence infrastructures should be of paramount importance influencing the economic development and a lot of lifes in China. Comparison between existing extreme statistical model like Gumbel, Weibull, P-III distribution or Probable Maximum Typhoon/Hurricane (PMT/PMH), Design Basis Flood (DBF) with our 1975-1980 proposed (CEVD) model showed that all the planned, designed and constructed coastal infrastructures accepted the traditional safety regulations are menaced by possibility of future ty-phoon/hurricane disasters and cannot satisfy the safety requirements with the increasing tendency of the extreme natural hazards. Our first publication in US (J. of Waterway Port Coastal & Ocean Eng. ASCE, 1980, ww4) proposed an new model “Compound Extreme Value Distribution” used for China sea, after then the model was used in “Long term Distribution of Hurricane Characteristics” for Gulf of Mexico & Atlantic coasts, U.S. (OTC.1982). 2005 hurricane Katrina, Rita and 2012 hurricane Sandy induced disasters proved 1982 CEVD and CEVD has been developed into Multivariate Compound Extreme Value Distribution (MCEVD). 2006 MCEVD predicted extreme hazards in New Orleans, Gulf of Mexico and Philadelphia areas. 2013 typhoon Fitow induced disaster in China also proved MCEVD 2006 predicted results.
Highlights
The Application of PNLTCED to Hurricane Katrina Disaster of New OrleansThe 55 year (1950-2004) measured data of hurricane winds, hurricane effect duration (provided by NOAA and Unisys Company) and the simultaneous Mississippi water level (provided by USACE) are used for the long term joint probability prediction of Hurricane Katrina
Since 1972 Rita typhoon attacked on Dalian Port and induced severe catastrophe, we were studied on statistical prediction model of typhoon induced wave height and wind speed
Comparison between existing extreme statistical model like Gumbel, Weibull, P-III distribution or Probable Maximum Typhoon/Hurricane (PMT/PMH), Design Basis Flood (DBF) with our 1975-1980 proposed (CEVD) model showed that all the planned, designed and constructed coastal infrastructures accepted the traditional safety regulations are menaced by possibility of future typhoon/hurricane disasters and cannot satisfy the safety requirements with the increasing tendency of the extreme natural hazards
Summary
The 55 year (1950-2004) measured data of hurricane winds, hurricane effect duration (provided by NOAA and Unisys Company) and the simultaneous Mississippi water level (provided by USACE) are used for the long term joint probability prediction of Hurricane Katrina. 1982 by CEVD predicted 100 years return period hurricane induced storm surge about 10 foot for Philadelphia areas which close to 2012 October 30, 08h:06 min. Hurricane Sandy induced storm surge 10.62 ft (dotted line in Fig 1),.but NOAA predicted surge only 7.52 ft. 5. NOAA Proposed Unreasonable SPH/PMH and API Recommendations Induced Collapsing of 110 Fixed Platforms by 2005 Hurricane Katrina and Rita. P20 previous study of hurricanes Andrew, Lili and Ivan all reported destruction and major damage due to WID.
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