Abstract

Abstract This chapter directly assesses the expectation that an increase in turnout from one election to the next produces a larger vote share for the Democratic candidate, while a decline in turnout reduces it. It offers straightforward data to analyze changes through time for presidential elections (overall and within states, from 1948 through 2016), Senate elections (overall, and for all one hundred seats from 1966 through 2016), gubernatorial elections (overall, and for all fifty states from 1966 through 2016), and congressional elections (overall, and for all 435 districts from 1972 through 2010). The focus is on aggregate patterns and relationships. The data indicate that partisan vote choice is not significantly correlated with turnout.

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