Abstract
The paper aims to provide an overview of the major opportunities and challenges of the fourth phase of globalization in the current macro scenario characterized by a high level of economic and geopolitical complexity and uncertainty. The assumptions and results reported in this work are based mostly on the judgmental opinion of the author and on his critical analysis of macroeconomic data and global trends. The author of the paper is a seasoned chief economic advisor and professor of global economics and disruptive innovation. Forecasting global market trends and future scenarios in a highly unpredictable business environment is always a complex task which cannot be undertaken simply relying on quantitative research techniques based on historical datasets since the past is not always a good predictor of future events. The qualitative approach adopted for this research is based on multiple forms of data sources and the following activities: (1) identification of the key forces and trends in the environment (i.e. environmental scanning); (2) assessing the driving forces and trends by importance and uncertainty; (3) envisioning potential alternative scenarios; and (4) assessing the potential implications of each trend and scenario. The result of this analysis confirms the central role that technological development is likely to have in the near future as a major driver of disruptive change in the economic and social models of many countries and leads to the conclusion that the groundbreaking and disruptive innovations of the future should be perceived as a potential opportunity and not just as a threat by stakeholders in the international community.
Highlights
Looking at the 2018 Global Competitiveness Index 4.0 of the World Economic Forum (Figure 7), it reveals that the innovation powerhouses in the world remain those countries that have developed over the years strong innovation capabilities; that have allocated high level investments for R&D and technological innovation as a percentage of the GDP; that have an adequate attitude towards entrepreneurial risk; that have competitive firms with scalable business models; that have good levels of public-private cooperation; that have the right corporate culture, flexibility, and organizational agility to adjust to rapidly changes in the business environment and to promote creativity by empowering employees and encouraging them to create, challenge and experiment; and that have developed advanced financial systems and venture capital expertise (WEF, 2018)
When the “Creative Destruction” wave breaks with its revolutionary innovation power on traditional and outdated business models and technological solutions it often carries with it the force to disrupt entire industries and economic and social models
As explained in this paper, there are many excellent reasons to be optimistic about the promising future scenario of international business thanks to the unprecedented and exciting growth opportunities that new breakthrough innovations and technological developments will bring to firms, households, and the overall global prosperity
Summary
Engaging in International business these days can be very exciting for dynamic, highly competitive, and innovative firms and startups thanks to a vibrant and highly-interconnected global business environment; eagerly driven knowledge-sharing communities, and the ease of access to smart and seamless enabling technologies. Looking at the 2018 Global Competitiveness Index 4.0 of the World Economic Forum (Figure 7), it reveals that the innovation powerhouses in the world remain those countries that have developed over the years strong innovation capabilities; that have allocated high level investments for R&D and technological innovation as a percentage of the GDP; that have an adequate attitude towards entrepreneurial risk; that have competitive firms with scalable business models; that have good levels of public-private cooperation; that have the right corporate culture, flexibility, and organizational agility to adjust to rapidly changes in the business environment and to promote creativity by empowering employees and encouraging them to create, challenge and experiment; and that have developed advanced financial systems and venture capital expertise (WEF, 2018).
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