TSUNAMI RISK ASSESSMENT MODELLING IN CHABAHAR PORT, IRAN

Abstract

Abstract. The well-known historical tsunami in the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ) region was generated by the earthquake of November 28, 1945 in Makran Coast in the North of Oman Sea. This destructive tsunami killed over 4,000 people in Southern Pakistan and India, caused great loss of life and devastation along the coasts of Western India, Iran and Oman. According to the report of "Remembering the 1945 Makran Tsunami", compiled by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (UNESCO/IOC), the maximum inundation of Chabahar port was 367 m toward the dry land, which had a height of 3.6 meters from the sea level. In addition, the maximum amount of inundation at Pasni (Pakistan) reached to 3 km from the coastline. For the two beaches of Gujarat (India) and Oman the maximum run-up height was 3 m from the sea level. In this paper, we first use Makran 1945 seismic parameters to simulate the tsunami in generation, propagation and inundation phases. The effect of tsunami on Chabahar port is simulated using the ComMIT model which is based on the Method of Splitting Tsunami (MOST). In this process the results are compared with the documented eyewitnesses and some reports from researchers for calibration and validation of the result. Next we have used the model to perform risk assessment for Chabahar port in the south of Iran with the worst case scenario of the tsunami. The simulated results showed that the tsunami waves will reach Chabahar coastline 11 minutes after generation and 9 minutes later, over 9.4 Km2 of the dry land will be flooded with maximum wave amplitude reaching up to 30 meters.