Tropical cyclones in China: County-based analysis of landfalls and economic losses in Fujian Province

Abstract

Most of China’s coastline is economically developing, densely populated, and frequently hit by landfalling Tropical Cyclones (TCs). Economic losses below province level have not been systematically analyzed due to lack of data. The objective of this paper is to conduct a TC loss assessment on county level in Fujian Province, coastal SE China, and to break down economic losses from province-scale to smaller administrative units. A unique loss database established by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and National Climate Center is used, and four entries at county-level are derived: location of losses due to TC, total economic losses per TC, start time of TC, and end time of TC. Tracks and intensities of TCs from 1949–2008 are derived from the CMA and Shanghai Typhoon Center annual typhoon yearbooks. Physical and economic data are overlaid in a Geographical information System. The landfall spots of TCs on China’s mainland coastline from 1949–2008 are determined by generating segments of 1° length. The result shows that Guangdong Province (South China) and Fujian Province (South-East China) host distinct hot spots where TCs make frequent landfall. All TCs making landfall in Central-North Fujian originated from the West North Pacific and none from the South China Sea. Direct economic losses in 25 counties along Fujian’s coastline due to TCs from 1984–2007 are analyzed and corrected with the Consumer Price Index. Some counties report losses frequently at low magnitude but seldom at high magnitude. Others like urban Fuzhou experience losses above 10 million CNY per TC, the most costly one 70 times higher. Other rural counties might experience economic losses far below 10 million CNY when being hit. Landfalling TCs in average cause economic losses of minimum 10 million CNY in 21 of 25 counties. In roughly one third of the counties, economic losses account for more than 30 million CNY when a TC has impact. The average economic losses per TC are 0.2–0.5% of the counties’ GDP (South and North of Fujian’s coastline) and even more than 0.5% of the GDP in North-East Fujian. The economic impacts of TCs are higher along the southern and northern coastline of Fujian Province where TC landfall activity is higher, but higher economic losses are triggered by higher GDP in these counties. The most costly TCs in Fujian had intensities of Severe Tropical Storm or Typhoon and occurred mostly in the 2000’s after making landfall in July.