Tropical cyclone impacts on crop condition ratings and yield in the Coastal Southern United States

Abstract

Weather causes both positive and negative impacts to agriculture making it the most uncontrollable factor affecting crop production. Agriculture in the southern U.S. comprises over 40% of the annual commodity export from the U.S., and this region also experiences a relatively large frequency of tropical cyclones. Few previous studies have investigated the effects tropical cyclones have on agriculture; thus, this study quantified the role tropical cyclones have on crop quality and yield in the Coastal Southern U.S. region using United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service crop condition data (May–October; 1986–2021). The greatest changes in condition ratings were observed in fields that were favorable for normal and above normal yield potential, which were downgraded to a less than normal condition more favorable for some extent of loss to yield. For crops considered in excellent or good condition, decreases in coverage were up to 5% which resulted in an increase in fair, poor, or very poor conditions (up to 3% on average). When aggregating all crops in this study (corn, cotton, peanuts, rice, sorghum, soybeans), the latter portion of the growing season was the most detrimental to conditions after tropical cyclone impact, even under drought conditions. The strongest correlation found was between crop condition declines and tropical cyclone intensity, as major hurricanes were more likely to cause crop loss than any other variable. Consequently, yield prospects decline after a tropical cyclone based on declines in coverage of excellent and good conditions (yield declines up to 6% on average); though, crop conditions tend to recover resulting in yield to also recover marginally by the end of the season (declines up to 3%). Overall, these results provide essential risk management information for producers and could be used to better inform resilience and sustainability decisions related to tropical cyclone impacts.