Trimming the Sails: Philippine Interests and Post-Arbitration Strategy in the South China Sea

Abstract

The election of populist President Rodrigo Duterte brought about a significant change in the South China Sea policy of the Philippines. Whereas the previous administration preferred to assert its sovereign rights to portions of the South China Sea through an arbitration action against China, the new president has sought reconciliation with China to address conflicting sovereignty claims. This article argues that although Duterte’s new strategy has secured some short-term gains, it has been largely ineffective in securing the long-term national interests of the Philippines in the South China Sea. Not only have the Chinese infrastructure loans that Duterte was promised in exchange for his policy shift failed to materialize, his deference to China’s interests threatens to jeopardize the fishing rights, natural resource rights, and national security interests of the Philippines. Philippine fishermen, a crucial sector of the economy, now have access to Scarborough Shoal, but without any formal agreement, Chinese naval vessels retain control over the area and can restrict access at their discretion. In addition, Philippine rights to exploitation of certain South China Sea oil and natural gas resources, which are critical to fueling the future Philippine economy, have been sacrificed in order to placate China’s preference for joint development. Finally, Duterte’s failure to push back against Chinese militarization of the South China Sea in the interest of reconciliation, has worsened the national security situation of the Philippines and weakened its ability to defend its interests in the area. President Duterte’s strategic gamble that deference to China will allow the Philippines access to the region’s resources while side-stepping the issue of sovereignty carries with it the risk of implicitly recognizing China’s claims and forfeiting legitimate Philippine claims to the region. If China does not pay a price for its assertive behavior in the South China Sea, it will continue to dictate the terms of engagement in the region to the detriment of smaller nations like the Philippines. *Previously titled - Trimming the Sails: Philippine Interests and Post-Arbitration Strategy in the South China Sea.