Trends, turning points, and driving forces of desertification in global arid land based on the segmental trend method and SHAP model

Abstract

ABSTRACT Desertification is a form of land degradation observed in arid, semiarid, and dry subhumid ecosystems. Assessing the global trends and drivers of desertification in arid land is crucial for developing effective land restoration policies and mitigating desertification. We aimed to evaluate global segmental trends in desertification in arid land using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer images from 2000 to 2022. By constructing a robust MSAVI-Albedo Desertification Distance Index (DDI), we assessed the segmented development characteristics of desertification on Google Earth Engine. Additionally, we employed the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) model and machine learning methods to analyze the individual and interactive driving mechanisms of desertification. The results indicated an overall reduction in desertification, with approximately 23.21 million km2 (39% of the global arid region area) exhibiting negative trends in DDI. Approximately 31% of the land area showed a DDI of −0.002/y. Precipitation was consistently the primary factor influencing desertification, with an average SHAP value of 11.42. Secondary influencing factors included potential evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and vapor pressure differences. Notably, the coupling between precipitation and soil moisture exhibited the most significant impact on the desertification process, with SHAP coupling values of approximately 3.28 and 5.06 before and after the DDI turning point, respectively. These findings provide new insights into desertification on a global scale and offer valuable scientific support for promoting effective prevention and control measures.