Abstract
The influence of climate change on mid-latitudes atmospheric circulation is still very uncertain. The large internal variability makes it difficult to extract any statistically significant signal regarding the evolution of the circulation. Here we propose a methodology to calculate dynamical trends tailored to the circulation of specific days by computing the evolution of the distances between the circulation of the day of interest and the other days of the time series. We compute these dynamical trends for two case studies of the hottest days recorded in two different European regions (corresponding to the heat-waves of summer 2003 and 2010). We use the NCEP reanalysis dataset, an ensemble of CMIP5 models, and a large ensemble of a single model (CESM), in order to account for different sources of uncertainty. While we find a positive trend for most models for 2003, we cannot conclude for 2010 since the models disagree on the trend estimates.
Highlights
In the recently adopted UN Paris Agreement on climate change, countries agreed to focus international climate policy on keeping global mean temperature increase well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursue actions to further limit warming to 1.5 °C (UNFCCC 2015)
This paper explores the Earth system responses to different amounts of negative emissions
We have shown that this property applies across the full range of RCP scenarios. We argue that this perturbation airborne fraction of emissions (AF) (PAF) is a more suitable metric to assess the efficiency of Negative emissions technologies (NETs) than the CAF of the emissions from a single simulation
Summary
Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI. C D Jones1, P Ciais2, S J Davis3, P Friedlingstein4, T Gasser2,5, G P Peters6, J Rogelj7,8, D P van Vuuren9,10, J G Canadell11, A Cowie12, R B Jackson13, M Jonas14, E Kriegler15, E Littleton16, J A Lowe1, J Milne17, G Shrestha18, P Smith19, A Torvanger6 and A Wiltshire1 Keywords: climate, carbon cycle, earth system, negative emissions, carbon dioxide removal, mitigation scenarios Supplementary material for this article is available online
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