Trends in the prevalence and incidence of orphanhood in children and adolescents

Abstract

BackgroundIn South Africa, large increases in early adult mortality during the 1990s and early 2000s have reversed since public HIV treatment rollout in 2004. In a rural population in KwaZulu-Natal, we investigate trends in parental mortality and orphanhood from 2000–2014.MethodsUsing longitudinal demographic surveillance data for a population of approximately 90,000, we calculated annual incidence and prevalence of maternal, paternal and double orphanhood in children and adolescents (<20 years) and, overall and cause-specific mortality of parents by age.ResultsThe proportion of children and adolescents (<20 years) for whom one or both parents had died rose from 26% in 2000 to peak at 36% in 2010, followed by a decline to 32% in 2014. The burden of orphanhood remains high especially in the oldest age group: in 2014, 53% of adolescents 15–19 years had experienced the death of one or both parents. In all age groups and years, paternal orphan prevalence was three-five times higher than maternal orphan prevalence. Maternal and paternal orphan incidence peaked in 2005 at 17 and 27 per 1,000 person years respectively (<20 years) before declining by half through 2014. The leading cause of parental death throughout the period, HIV/AIDS and TB cause-specific mortality rates declined substantially in mothers and fathers from 2007 and 2009 respectively.ConclusionsThe survival of parents with children and adolescents <20 years has improved in tandem with earlier initiation and higher coverage of HIV treatment. However, comparatively high levels of parental deaths persist in this rural population in KwaZulu-Natal, particularly among fathers. Community-level surveillance to estimate levels of orphanhood remains important for monitoring and evaluation of targeted state welfare support for orphans and their guardians.