Abstract
Community adaptation to the negative impacts of climate change benefits from an analysis of both the trends in climate variables and people’s perception of climate change. This paper contends that members of the local community have observed changes in temperature and rainfall patterns and that these perceptions can be positively correlated with meteorological records. This is particularly useful for remote regions like Lamu whereby access to weather data is spatially and temporally challenged. Linear trend analysis is employed to describe the change in temperature and rainfall in Lamu using monthly data obtained from the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) for the period 1974–2014. To determine local perceptions and understanding of the trends, results from a household survey are presented. Significant warming trends have been observed in the study area over the period 1974–2014. This warming is attributed to a rise in maximum temperatures. In contrast to temperature, a clear picture of the rainfall trend has not emerged. Perceptions of the local community closely match the findings on temperature, with majority of the community identifying a rise in temperature over the same period. The findings suggest that the process of validating community perceptions of trends with historical meteorological data analysis can promote adaptation planning that is inclusive and responsive to local experiences.
Highlights
It is possible that climate change is the biggest threat to developing economies (Adger et al 2003)
The results indicate that the local community in Lamu detect changes in climate variables over time
The study findings suggest that the value of indigenous knowledge in climate trend analysis should be further explored
Summary
It is possible that climate change is the biggest threat to developing economies (Adger et al 2003) Depending on where they live and their ability to cope with different climate hazards, projected climate change will alter the lives of the most vulnerable populations (Devkota 2014; Adger et al 2003; Dubenu & Obeng 2016; Raheem & Olarunfemi 2013; Olanrewaju et al 2017; Mohammed & Fallah 2019). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts higher temperature increases in the region than the global mean temperature increase (Niang et al 2014) This would mean an increase in hot nights, as well as longer and more frequent heat waves. As the region already endures high temperatures and low precipitation, frequent droughts, food insecurity and water scarcity (Kabubo-Mariara 2008; Kotir 2011; Ozor et al 2012)
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
