Trends in alcohol-related mortality in East and West Germany, 1980-2014: age, period and cohort variations.

Abstract

Several indicators suggest that the extent and trends of alcohol-related mortality differ between East and West Germany. Regional drinking patterns and differences in health-care systems are assumed to affect the risk of dying from an alcohol-induced disease. The study addresses two questions: (1) what are the unbiased and independent age, period and cohort effects on alcohol-related mortality trends in Germany; and (2) do these trends differ between East and West Germany? Data on alcohol-related mortality for East and West Germany came from the national causes of death register for the years 1980-2014. Analyses included all deaths fully attributable to alcohol based on the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9 and ICD-10). Gender-stratified age-period-cohort analyses were conducted using the intrinsic estimator model. Age effects showed a concave pattern with a peak at ages 55-64years in both regions. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) in East Germany were highest in the years 1990-1994 (men and women: IRR=1.52) and declined thereafter. In West Germany, IRR were lowest in 1980-1984 (men: IRR=0.81, women: IRR=0.75) and stabilized at approximately 1.10 since 1995-1999. Cohort effects showed continuously lower IRR for those born after 1955-1959 in the East and those born after 1945-1949 in the West. Patterns for males and females were comparable. The results suggest that alcohol-related mortality showed different trends in East and West Germany, which can be explained partly by different drinking patterns before and changes in the health-care system after the reunification.