Abstract
Aiming at improving the service reliability and running stability, great numbers of control strategies were proposed. Different control strategies only under appropriate running state can play well. So different bus vehicles running state were defined, which is stable state, closing state and departing state, basing on the analysis of bus transit running process. From the historical bus trajectories, it was found that the headway bias amplified as buses travel on the route. Then put a recognition of running state method forward by using the relative Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of historical based travel time estimate model and tendency based travel time estimate model. At last the optimal boundary value for different running state was calibrated. This method can also be can be applied for different bus lines.
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