Abstract

The paper describes research on estimating sequential discrete choice models for mode choice, destination choice and interzonal trip generation of commuters from 1970 to 2000 in Switzerland. The research is based on detailed data sets that track the development of the private and public transport system and the socioeconomic variables on the level of local municipalities. Major changes in mode choice were identified via the estimated parameters of travel cost, quantity adjusted car ownership cost and car ownership per licensed driver. The results of the interzonal trip generation show that demand reacts with positive elasticity to accessibility, but also that the accessibility of a zone becomes less important for the generation of interzonal work trips over time.

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