Transport–environment–economy linkages in Yellow River’s ‘Ji-shape’ bend metro area

Coupling coordination analysis of resources, economy, and ecology in the Yellow River Basin

Enhancing the level of coupling coordination between the digital economy and low-carbon development is not only an inevitable choice for implementing the strategy of ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin, but also a key path to achieve China’s “Double Carbon” goal. The level of coupling coordination between the digital economy and low-carbon development in 78 cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2011 to 2020 is measured by a coupling coordination model, and the spatial-temporal characteristics and driving factors are analysed using the Dagum Gini coefficient, spatial autocorrelation model and geographic detector. This study found the following: (1) Rapid growth of the digital economy, with the slow growth of low-carbon development. The degree of coupling coordination of the two systems steadily improved and moved from a stage of near-disorder to primary coordination. (2) The degree of coupling coordination is spatially characterised by lower reaches > middle reaches > upper reaches, and provincial capitals and some coastal cities have a higher level of coupling coordination. Spatial differences in coupling coordination tend to widen, with inter-regional differences being the main source of overall differences. (3) There was a significant positive spatial correlation in the degree of coupling coordination. Local spatial clustering characteristics were dominated by High-High (H-H) clustering areas in Shandong and Low-Low (L-L) clustering areas in south-eastern Gansu. (4) The degree of coupling coordination was driven by both internal and external factors of the two systems, with internet penetration and the size of the telecommunications industry within the digital economy system as the most important factors driving the coupling coordination, and the interactions between the different drivers were all enhanced.

Coupling coordination and spatio-temporal pattern evolution between ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin

The integrated development of new-type urbanization and tourism is of great significance for social development. Based on panel data of nine provinces in the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2019, models such as entropy TOPSIS, the super-SBM model, the coupling coordination degree model, the GM (1,1) model, Tobit regression, and other methods were used to explore the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the coupling coordination degree (CCD) between new-type urbanization and tourism resource conversion efficiency (TRCE) in the Yellow River Basin. The results show that, during the research period: (1) The development index of new-type urbanization in the Yellow River Basin showed a steady upwards trend and TRCE was generally stable. (2) The CCD between new-type urbanization and TRCE in the Yellow River Basin fluctuated and rose with an average annual CCD of 0.716, indicating an intermediate coordination stage, and showed an overall spatial distribution pattern of “midstream region > downstream region > upstream region”. The center of gravity of the CCD shifted to the northwest and the type of CCD jumped rapidly to a better stage, especially in the midstream region. From the perspective of future trends, the coupling and coordination relationship between the two major systems will continue to be optimized from 2019 to 2025 and the midstream region will maintain a high growth level. (3) The industrial structure, cultural media investment, science and technology investment, and communication level are important factors that affect the CCD of new-type urbanization and TRCE in the Yellow River Basin. The CCD of new-type urbanization and TRCE in the Yellow River Basin tends to be better as a whole, but the regional differences are obvious. Therefore, in the process of policy implementation, special attention should be given to the understanding of regional differences to avoid policy failure. This is very important to the Yellow River Basin and equally important to other regions.

Most cities in the Yellow River Basin are located in the central and western regions of China. Restricted by historical evolution, natural environment, resource endowments and other conditions, the economic and social development model of the Yellow River Basin region is outdated, and the level of economic and social development is relatively lagging, which hinders its coordinated development of ecology and economy. This paper uses the coupling coordination degree model, GIS spatial analysis method, NAR neural network model, spatial autoregression, and geographically weighted regression model to investigate the coupling coordination level, spatial differentiation characteristics, future development trend, and coupling driving factors of eco-environmental protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin. The results show that From 2003 to 2018, the level of eco-environmental protection and high-quality development in most areas of the Yellow River Basin gradually improved, presenting a spatial imbalance characteristic of “high in the east and low in the west. The coupling coordination degree of eco-environmental protection and high-quality development in various regions of the Yellow River Basin increased year by year during the survey period. In 2018, most cities had been transformed into intermediate coordinated development areas, and most cities in Inner Mongolia and the middle and lower reaches south of the Yellow River have been upgraded to a well-coordinated development stage. The coupled and coordinated development relationship between eco-environmental protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin has significant spatial agglomeration characteristics, and the local spatial positive correlation gradually increases. From 2019 to 2023, the average level of coupling coordination between eco-environmental protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin during the forecast period is 0.802, 0.807, 0.809, 0.813, and 0.816, respectively, all of which have entered a stage of well-coordinated development. The coupled driving factors of ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin are ranked from strong to weak: energy utilization, urbanization, water resources development, and industrialization. Among them, the degree of energy utilization is the root of the differentiation of coupling coordination between eco-environmental protection and high-quality development in 74 regions of the Yellow River Basin. This study puts forward two strategic suggestions based on the optimal utilization strategy of energy and water resources and the coordinated promotion strategy of industrialization and urbanization, which has great practical and scientific significance for promoting the coordinated development of ecological environment protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin.

This study investigates the coupling coordination between carbon emission efficiency (CEE) and carbon balance (CB) in the Yellow River Basin (YRB), aiming to support high-quality regional development and the realization of China’s “dual carbon” goals. Based on panel data from 74 cities in the YRB between 2006 and 2022, the Super-SBM model, Ecological Support Coefficient (ESC), and coupling coordination degree (CCD) model are applied to evaluate the synergy between CEE and CB. Spatiotemporal patterns and driving mechanisms are analyzed using kernel density estimation, Moran’s I index, the Dagum Gini coefficient, Markov chains, and the XGBoost algorithm. The results reveal a generally low and declining level of CCD, with the upstream and midstream regions performing better than the downstream. Spatial clustering is evident, characterized by significant positive autocorrelation and high-high or low-low clusters. Although regional disparities in CCD have narrowed slightly over time, interregional differences remain the primary source of variation. The likelihood of leapfrog development in CCD is limited, and high-CCD regions exhibit weak spillover effects. Forest coverage is identified as the most critical driver, significantly promoting CCD. Conversely, population density, urbanization, energy structure, and energy intensity negatively affect coordination. Economic development demonstrates a U-shaped relationship with CCD. Moreover, nonlinear interactions among forest coverage, population density, energy structure, and industrial enterprise scale further intensify the complexity of CCD. These findings provide important implications for enhancing regional carbon governance and achieving balanced ecological-economic development in the YRB.

Regarding the background of the "urban-rural dual structure", the scientific evaluation of the relationship between urban and rural water resource systems is of great significance for alleviating water use contradictions and optimizing water resource allocation. Based on the theory of water poverty, the coupling coordination model was used to quantify the relationship between the urban and rural water resource systems in northwest China from 2000 to 2020; furthermore, the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanism were studied by using spatial autocorrelation, a hot spot analysis and the Tobit model. The result showed the following: ① The scores of urban and rural water poverty have risen significantly, and the urban and rural water resource systems have improved significantly. Among them, urban water poverty demonstrated a tiered pattern of "east-middle-west", and rural water poverty demonstrated a pattern of collapse of "high on both sides and low in the middle". ② The overall degree of coupling coordination between urban and rural water poverty has greatly improved. However, nearly 70% of the regions are still of the basic uncoordinated type, and the differences between regions have been gradually expanding, showing a state of agglomeration in space, mainly of the low-high and high-high agglomeration types. The hot spot area was mainly concentrated in the southeast area, showing a gradual expansion trend, and the cold spot area was mainly concentrated in the central area, showing a gradual shrinking trend. ③ The level of economic development, industrial structure and agricultural production demonstrated a positive impact on the degree of coupling coordination. The degree of industrialization, the level of opening, technological progress, population size, expenditure on supporting agriculture and environmental regulation had different effects on the degree of regional coupling coordination. Different strategies should be adopted to promote the coupled and coordinated development of urban and rural water resource systems.

The human settlement environment is the basic space where people live, produce and live. The tourism industry is one of the industries closest to the development goal of the human settlement environment. The coordinated development of the human settlement environment and the tourism industry provides vital support for high-quality sustainable development in the region, but the related research is relatively insufficient. Based on the panel data from 2010 to 2019, this study takes the Yellow Basin as the research object, using comprehensive evaluation, coupling degree, and coupling coordination models. The study aims to comprehensively measure the development level of the human settlement environment and tourism industry in nine provinces of the Yellow River Basin and analyzes the spatio-temporal differentiation characteristics of the coupling coordination between the human settlement environment and tourism industry in the Yellow River Basin. The results demonstrate an interactive coupling relationship between the human settlement environment and the tourism industry. We observe an upward fluctuation in the development level of the two systems in the Yellow River Basin and converging development trends between the two; however, the tourism industry in the region is far behind in driving the construction of the human settlement environment. Regarding the spatial and temporal evolution of the coupling coordination of the two systems, in the time dimension, the coupling degree of the nine provinces in the Yellow River Basin was relatively stable from 2010 to 2019 and maintained a high level. The coupling coordination degree was on the rise, evolving from near-disorder to elementary coordination. The two systems in the Basin still showed a pattern of “high coupling-low coordination.” Nevertheless, in the spatial dimension, the coupling and coupling coordination degrees of the two systems in the Yellow River Basin showed an unbalanced development pattern of “high in the southeast and low in the northwest.” The regions with a low coordination level demonstrated that the development of the tourism industry lags behind in the construction of the human settlement environment. Findings in this study provide references for increasing the resonance between the human settlement environment and the tourism industry and promoting the overall coordinated, balanced and sustainable development of the Yellow River Basin.

With the rapid expansion of the Chinese economy in recent years, the urbanization process of the provinces in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) has put serious pressure on the sustainability of the water resources carrying capacity (WRCC). It is necessary to analyze and diagnose the coordination state between urbanization and the WRCC. In this study, based on the Population-Economic-Social-Spatial (PESS) framework and Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model, we developed two index systems for the urbanization and WRCC, respectively. At the basis of the two index systems, the coupling coordination degree (CCD) of the two systems is calculated by applying the improved CCD model. Based on the calculated CCD for each province, the spatio-temporal analysis was performed to analyze the characteristics of CCD in the YRB. The obstacle factor model is utilized to obtain the main obstacle factors. The results show that: (1) the coordination state between the urbanization and WRCC systems was improved to some extent in 2017, compared to 2008, but there are differences in the coordination state of the different provinces in the YRB. (2) In terms of the level of urbanization, the gap between the seven provinces’ performance levels widened because urbanization grew at different rates. The WRCC system’s performance presented a fluctuating downward trend from 2008 to 2017 in the YRB. (3) The pressure subsystem had a significant impact on the two systems’ coordination state in the YRB, while the social urbanization and response subsystem had a less significant impact on the urbanization system and the WRCC system, respectively. Due to the growth of urbanization, the imbalanced development of the WRCC and urbanization has become the principal contradiction that must be solved in order to achieve sustainability in the YRB. The analysis of the coupling relationship between urbanization and WRCC may guide the policy makers in planning for realistic goals. The results provide a guide for high-quality development in the YRB.

The realization of coupling coordination between digitalization and traditional industrial upgrading in the Yellow River Basin holds significant practical value for promoting high-quality industrial development in the region. In order to assess this coupling coordination, we utilized inter-provincial panel data from nine provinces in the Yellow River Basin, covering the period from 2011 to 2020. Through the application of a coupling coordination degree model, we calculated the degree of coupling coordination and relative development between digitalization and traditional industrial upgrading. Additionally, we conducted a spatial–temporal analysis to identify the characteristics and trends of digitalization and traditional industrial upgrading. Furthermore, we constructed a panel VAR model to examine the interactive relationship between these two factors. The findings are as follows: (1) overall, over the study period, the degree of coupling coordination between digitalization and traditional industrial upgrading in the Yellow River Basin transitioned from a disordered state to a run-in stage. The corresponding development type changed from a low steady state to a co-existence of low and medium steady states. Notably, the levels of digitalization, traditional industrial upgrading, and coupling coordination all exhibited a gradual increase, while the relative development degree declined. (2) The coupling coordination degree between digitalization and traditional industrial upgrading in the Yellow River Basin demonstrated significant regional variation. Provinces displaying a “high–high” agglomeration distribution and “low–low” agglomeration distribution were concentrated in the middle and lower reaches, as well as the upper reaches, of the Yellow River. Furthermore, there was a positive spatial autocorrelation between these regions. (3) Both digitalization and traditional industrial upgrading exhibit self-reinforcing mechanisms, and a long-term dynamic correlation exists between them.

Under the influence of human activities and climate change, the development of the Yellow River basin (YRB) is constrained by the utilization of hydropower resources, carbon emission and ecological deterioration. In this paper, combined weighting method, comprehensive assessment index, coupled coordination degree and obstacle degree model were used to construct a theoretical framework of the water-energy-carbon-ecological environment (WECEc) system in the nine provinces of the YRB from 2013 to 2022, analyze the comprehensive development level of the system and the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of the coupled coordination level of the system, and analyze obstacle factors. The results show that (1) During the study period, the comprehensive development level of WECEc system in the YRB generally increased in a fluctuation pattern. Among them, the water resources subsystem showed a fluctuating upward trend, the energy subsystem showed a slow and steady upward trend, the carbon subsystem showed a steady upward trend, and the ecological environment subsystem showed a significant upward trend. (2) The coupling coordination degree of WECEc system in nine provinces and regions of the YRB is concentrated as “IV” level “Primary Coordination” type. The overall coupling coordination degree of WECEc system in the YRB showed a steady increase in time, but in space, it showed a stepped distribution with higher coordination degree in the middle and upper reaches and lower coordination degree in the lower reaches, with significant regional differences. (3) Total water resources (WS1), Per capita carbon storage (CS4), coal production (ER2), water production modulus (WS2), carbon storage of forest and grass vegetation (CS1), total energy production (ER1), carbon sink of forest and grass vegetation (CS2) and domestic water consumption (WD3) play an important role in the coordinated development of WECEc system in the YRB. They are also the main obstacle factors that affects the coupling coordination degree of the system. This paper provides research basis and policy suggestions for promoting the sustainable development of the coupling system of WECEc in the nine provinces of the YRB, and promoting the high-quality development of Economy-Society-Ecology (ESE) in the YRB.

Understanding the coupling mechanisms and coordinated development dynamics of the water–energy–food (WEF) system is crucial for sustainable river basin development. This study focuses on the Yellow River Basin, conducting a comprehensive analysis of the system’s coupling mechanisms and influencing factors. A structured evaluation framework is established, integrating the entropy weight–TOPSIS method, the coupling coordination degree model, and spatial correlation analysis. Empirical analysis is conducted using data from nine provinces (regions) along the Yellow River from 2003 to 2022 to assess the spatiotemporal evolution of the coupling coordination level. The Tobit regression model is employed to quantify the impact of various factors on the system’s coupling coordination degree. Results indicate that the comprehensive evaluation index of the WEF system in the Yellow River Basin exhibits an overall upward trend, with the system coupling degree remaining at a high level for an extended period, up from 0.231 to 0.375. The interdependence among the three major systems is strong (0.881–0.939), and while the coupling coordination degree has increased over time despite fluctuations, a qualitative leap has not yet been achieved. The evaluation index follows a spatial distribution pattern of midstream > downstream > upstream, characterized by a predominantly high coupling degree. However, the coordination degree frequently remains at a forced coordination level or below, with a general trend of midstream > downstream > upstream. From 2003 to 2008, a positive spatial autocorrelation was observed in the coupling and coordinated development of the WEF system across provinces, indicating a strong spatial agglomeration effect. By 2022, most provinces were clustered in “high-high” and “low-low” areas, reflecting a positive spatial correlation with minimal regional differences. Key factors positively influencing coordination include economic development levels, industrial structure upgrading, urbanization, and transportation networks, while technological innovation negatively affects the system’s coordination. Based on these findings, it is recommended to strengthen balanced economic development, optimize the layout of industrial structures, improve the inter-regional resource circulation mechanism, and promote the deep integration of technological innovation and production practices to address the bottlenecks hindering the coordinated development of the water–energy–food system. Policy recommendations are proposed to provide strategic references for the sustainable socioeconomic development of the Yellow River Basin, thereby achieving the high-quality coordinated growth of the water–energy–food system in the region.

Urban–rural integration (URI) is important for achieving rural revitalization and sustainable development. Currently, there is a lack of research on URI in prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin Urban Agglomerations (YRBUAs), and the spatial relationship between URI and economic development is not clear. This paper evaluates the URI index of the YRBUA from 2010 to 2022, and applies research methods such as an exploratory data analysis, spatial variation function, coupling coordination degree, and gray correlation analysis to explore the spatial relationship between URI and economic development. The study found the following: (1) The integration level is highest in the Shandong Peninsula Urban Agglomeration and lowest in the Ningxia Along the Yellow River Urban Agglomeration. The rank structure of the URI index within the city cluster is dominated by a single core. (2) The URI index roughly shows the spatial distribution characteristics of high in the east and low in the west. (3) The level of URI and economic development are spatially positively correlated. The high-value agglomeration areas of both are mainly distributed in Shandong Peninsula. (4) The high-value areas of coupling coordination and gray correlation degree are distributed in Shandong Peninsula Urban Agglomeration.

The Yellow River Basin holds a crucial strategic position in the national development and socialist modernization agenda and serves as a vital ecological security barrier in China. It is also a significant region for population activities and economic development. Exploring integrated and coordinated development and the spatiotemporal evolution laws of the social economy, ecological environment and tourism industry is in line with China’s sustainable development goals and the needs of tourism recovery in the post-pandemic era; it is also highly important for the development of the social economy, ecology and tourism industry in the Yellow River Basin. The basin scope in this paper refers to the natural basin scope demarcated by the Yellow River Conservancy Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources. Seventy-eight prefecture-level cities (prefectures and leagues) are selected as the research scale to construct an evaluation index framework for the development of the social economy, ecology and tourism industry in the Yellow River Basin. With the help of the coupling coordination degree model, the interrelationships and coordinated development among these three systems are explored. Finally, the grey prediction model is used to predict the future trend of this coupling coordination in the Yellow River Basin. The main conclusions are as follows. (1) There are diverse and complex regional characteristics in the coupled and coordinated development of the three major systems in the Yellow River Basin. Overall, this development of the coupling and coordination degree tends to be higher in the west and lower in the east, and the low-value areas and high-value areas continuously spread. (2) From 2010 to 2020, the degree of coupling coordination in the Yellow River Basin showed a downward trend, transitioning from primary coordination to a moderate imbalance, with strong spatial heterogeneity. In 2020, because of the impacts from the pandemic, the vulnerability and instability of the three major systems in resisting external risks were highlighted. (3) From 2026 to 2030, there will be a continuous downward risk for the coupling coordination degree in the Yellow River Basin. Driven by rapid urbanization, the economy, ecology and tourism will most likely remain in a state of barely coordinated development in the short term.

This study focuses on the Yellow River Basin, a key economic region spanning nine provinces in China, and explores the complex interactions within the water–food–energy systems. Based on the theoretical framework of the coupled coordination of the water–food–energy system, an indicator system is developed to assess the coordination of these systems. Using ArcGIS, the study identifies the spatiotemporal characteristics of the coupling coordination of the water–food–energy systems in the Yellow River Basin. Additionally, a panel data model is employed to analyze the driving mechanisms and optimization pathways for enhancing system coordination in the region. The results reveal that (1) The degree of coupling coordination between the water–food–energy systems in the Yellow River Basin varies significantly across space. (2) Overall, the coupling coordination in the region is relatively low and exhibits a clustered pattern. (3) Research and development (R&D) intensity is a significant factor influencing the coupling coordination of these systems in the region.