Transboundary Transitional Waters: Arenas for Cross-Border Cooperation or Confrontation?

Abstract

The Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 evoked academic interest in various aspects of international security and stability. The main objective of this study was to elicit the essential features and indicators for gauging the current state of cross-border cooperation and the risks of confrontation in and around transboundary transitional waters, i.e., those transitional waters where two or more countries share an estuary, delta, or lagoon while having a contiguous border in the territorial waters. The Cooperation and Confrontation Index comprises five facets and 25 indicators spread equally among these five facets. The following are the facets based on the integrated values with which the Cooperation and Confrontation Index for each transboundary transitional water body is calculated: 1. Socioeconomic Cohesion; 2. Environmental Coherence; 3. Cross-border Connectivity; 4. Cross-border Co-operation; and 5. Confrontation Risk. A comprehensive worldwide inventory of transboundary transitional waters was created. The investigation results show that eight transboundary transitional water areas are under high confrontation risk, while six areas are under no confrontation risk. The conclusion is that this risk of confrontation is closely correlated with the level of corruption in a more bellicose country sharing the transboundary transitional water body.