Trajectories of delinquency from age 14 to 23 in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth sample

Abstract

This study utilised data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to investigate risk trajectories for delinquency and factors associated with different trajectories, particularly substance use. The sample (n = 8984) was 49% female. A group-based trajectory model was applied, which identified four distinct trajectories for both males and females: a High group with delinquency rates consistently higher than other groups, with some decrease across the age range; a Decreased group, beginning at high levels with substantial decrease to near zero; a Moderate group, experiencing some decline but remaining at moderate rates of delinquency through most of the age range; and a consistently Low group, having low rates of delinquency declining to near zero by mid-teens to late-teens. The Low group was distinguished by several protective factors, including higher rates of maternal authoritative parenting style, possible lower acculturation (higher rates of non-English spoken at home), higher rates of religious activity, later substance use initiation, lower rates of early delinquent activity, less early experience with neighbourhood or personal violence, and higher rates of perceiving penalty for wrongdoing. Conversely, the High group was characterised by several vulnerability factors – essentially the converse of the protective factors above.