Traffic Status Evolution Trend Prediction Based on Congestion Propagation Effects under Rainy Weather

Abstract

In rainy weather, the accurate prediction of traffic status not only helps road traffic managers to formulate traffic management methods but also helps travelers design travel routes and even adjust travel time. In this paper, based on six-dimensional data (e.g., past and present spatiotemporal traffic status, road network structure, pavement type, water accumulation, and rainfall level), a fuzzy neural network (FNN) prediction system is proposed to predict traffic status. The traffic status evolution trend is related not only to the existing traffic but also to the new traffic demand. Therefore, the FNN prediction system designed includes offline and online parts using the data of the past and the day separately and avoids the forecast of new traffic demand. The fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm is applied to cluster traffic status data under similar rainy weather in the past to form an offline initial dataset, which is used to train FNN weight parameters. The online part uses real-time detection data and the parameters trained by the offline part to further predict the traffic status and returns the prediction errors to the offline part to correct the weight parameters to further improve prediction accuracy. Finally, the FNN prediction system is verified using real Beijing expressway network data. The verification results show that the prediction system can guarantee prediction accuracy and can be used to effectively identify traffic status.