Abstract
With a growing population and a changing climate, competition for water resources in the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus is expected to increase. In this study, competing water demands between food production, freshwater ecosystems and utilities (energy, industries and households) are quantified. The potential trade-offs and related impacts are elaborated for different SSP scenarios with the integrated assessment model IMAGE, which includes the global vegetation and hydrology model Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land (LPJmL). Results for the 2045–2054 period are evaluated at the global scale and for a selection of 14 hotspot basins and coastal zones. On the global scale, we estimate that an additional 1.7 billion people could potentially face severe water shortage for electricity, industries and households if food production and environmental flows would be prioritized. Zooming in on the hotspots, this translates to up to 70% of the local population. Results furthermore show that up to 33% of river length in the hotspots risks not meeting environmental targets when prioritizing other water demands in the nexus. For local food production, up to 41% might be lost due to competing water demands. The potential trade-offs quantified in this study highlight the competition for resources in the WEF nexus, for which impacts are most notably felt at local scales. This emphasizes the need to simultaneously consider different dimensions of the nexus when developing scenarios that aim to achieve multiple sustainability targets.
Highlights
Global targets for food production, energy supply, sanitation and biodiversity all rely on the availability of freshwater resources
Over the past few decades, increasing awareness of the limits to freshwater availability has led to global water resources assessments that account for water availability and use (Bierkens 2015)
Global results SSP2 baseline and SSP2-EFR scenario In SSP2, global water demands are expected to increase (SI figure 2). This is predominantly driven by population growth, which leads to higher water demands for EIH
Summary
Global targets for food production, energy supply, sanitation and biodiversity all rely on the availability of freshwater resources These resources, suffer from increasing pressures caused by human activities, such as land cover change, irrigation, urbanization and industrialization (Gleick and Palaniappan 2010, Vörösmarty et al 2010). Over the past few decades, increasing awareness of the limits to freshwater availability has led to global water resources assessments that account for water availability and use (Bierkens 2015). To support these assessments, several studies have projected how future water demands in the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus might develop (Grafton et al 2017, Bijl et al 2018). An important goal is to identify solution pathways that remain within ‘planetary boundaries’, while still meeting societal demands (Rockström et al 2009, Gerten et al 2013, Jägermeyr et al 2017)
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