Trade‐Off Analysis Between Environmental Effects and Profitability in Agriculture: A Finnish Case‐Study

Abstract. Setyawan AD, Supriatna J, Nisyawati, Sutarno, Sugiyarto, Nursamsi I. 2018. Predicting impacts of future climate change on the distribution of the widespread selaginellas (Selaginella ciliaris and S. plana) in Southeast Asia. Biodiversitas 19: 1960-1977. The current global climate is moving towards dangerous and unprecedented conditions that have been seen as a potentially devastating threat to the environment and all living things. Selaginella is a fern-allies that needs water as a medium for fertilization, hence its distribution is presumed to be affected by climate change. In Southeast Asia (SEA), there are two widely distributed selaginellas, namely Selaginella ciliaris and S. plana. S. ciliaris is a small herb (up to 4 cm), annual, abundant during the rainy season, and found in the middle-high plains, whereas S. plana is a stout large herb (up to 80 cm), perennial, and mainly found in the lowlands. The purpose of this study was to determine the potential niche distribution of S. ciliaris and S. plana under current climatic conditions, and to predict its future distribution under the impacts of climate change. We used Maxent software along with bioclimatic, edaphic, and UV radiation variables to model the potential niche distribution of those two selaginellas under current and future predictions climate conditions. We generated future predictions under four detailed bioclimatic scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5) over three times intervals (2030, 2050, 2080). The results showed that future climatic conditions in the SEA had been predicted to significantly disrupt the distribution of suitable habitat of S. ciliaris and S. plana, and alter their geographic distribution patterns. Although some areas were predicted to become suitable habitat in the early period of future climate change, the overall projections show adverse effects of future climate conditions on the suitable habitat distribution of S. ciliaris and S. plana, as estimated losses of suitable habitat will be higher than the gains.

Increasing the awareness of society about climate change by using a simplified way for the explanation of its impacts might be one of the key elements to adaptation and mitigation of its possible effects. This study investigates climate analogs, which allow a comparison between current and future climate conditions. The grid-based calculation of analogs over the selected European domain was carried out using a newly proposed distance between multivariate distributions, the Wasserstein Distance (WD), never been used so far for climate analog calculations. By working on the whole multivariate distributions, WD allows us to account for dependencies between the variables of interest. Its features are compared with the Euclidean Distance which is currently the most used method. Multi-model climate analogs analysis is achieved between the reference period 1981-2010 and three future periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100, respectively by using 15 different datasets in total obtained from five different CMIP6 climate models and three different emission scenarios. The multi-model analysis also enables the comparison of models from a climate analogs perspective. The model comparison results show that consistency between models decreases as the time approaches the end of the century or when scenarios worsen. Our analysis suggests that Europe’s future analogs are located today south of our regions, except for the Balkans that need to look east to find their analogs. In addition, towards the end of the century, the similarity between future and current climatic conditions will gradually decrease and the spatial distance between each reference grid and its best analog location will increase. This means that the warmer the climate, the more difficult it will be to find an analog and therefore the more difficult it will be for us to think about adaptation.

Setyawan AD, Supriatna J, Nisyawati, Sutarno, Sugiyarto, Nursamsi I. 2018. Predicting impacts of future climate change on the distribution of the widespread selaginellas (Selaginella ciliaris and S. plana) in Southeast Asia. Biodiversitas 19: 1960-1977. The current global climate is moving towards dangerous and unprecedented conditions that have been seen as a potentially devastating threat to the environment and all living things. Selaginella is a fern-allies that needs water as a medium for fertilization, hence its distribution is presumed to be affected by climate change. In Southeast Asia (SEA), there are two widely distributed selaginellas, namely Selaginella ciliaris and S. plana. S. ciliaris is a small herb (up to 4 cm), annual, abundant during the rainy season, and found in the middle-high plains, whereas S. plana is a stout large herb (up to 80 cm), perennial, and mainly found in the lowlands. The purpose of this study was to determine the potential niche distribution of S. ciliaris and S. plana under current climatic conditions, and to predict its future distribution under the impacts of climate change. We used Maxent software along with bioclimatic, edaphic, and UV radiation variables to model the potential niche distribution of those two selaginellas under current and future predictions climate conditions. We generated future predictions under four detailed bioclimatic scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5) over three times intervals (2030, 2050, 2080). The results showed that future climatic conditions in the SEA had been predicted to significantly disrupt the distribution of suitable habitat of S. ciliaris and S. plana, and alter their geographic distribution patterns. Although some areas were predicted to become suitable habitat in the early period of future climate change, the overall projections show adverse effects of future climate conditions on the suitable habitat distribution of S. ciliaris and S. plana, as estimated losses of suitable habitat will be higher than the gains.

The Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus, native to South East Asia, is listed as one of the worst invasive vector species worldwide. In Europe the species is currently restricted to Southern Europe, but due to the ongoing climate change, Ae. albopictus is expected to expand its potential range further northwards. In addition to modelling the habitat suitability for Ae. albopictus under current and future climatic conditions in Europe by means of the maximum entropy approach, we here focused on the drivers of the habitat suitability prediction. We explored the most limiting factors for Aedes albopictus in Europe under current and future climatic conditions, a method which has been neglected in species distribution modelling so far. Ae. albopictus is one of the best-studied mosquito species, which allowed us to evaluate the applied Maxent approach for most limiting factor mapping. We identified three key limiting factors for Ae. albopictus in Europe under current climatic conditions: winter temperature in Eastern Europe, summer temperature in Southern Europe. Model findings were in good accordance with commonly known establishment thresholds in Europe based on climate chamber experiments and derived from the geographical distribution of the species. Under future climatic conditions low winter temperature were modelled to remain the most limiting factor in Eastern Europe, whereas in Central Europe annual mean temperature and summer temperatures were modelled to be replaced by summer precipitation, respectively, as most limiting factors. Changes in the climatic conditions in terms of the identified key limiting factors will be of great relevance regarding the invasive potential of the Ae. albopictus. Thus, our results may help to understand the key drivers of the suggested range expansion under climate change and may help to improve monitoring programmes. The applied approach of investigating limiting factors has proven to yield valuable results and may also provide valuable insights into the drivers of the prediction of current and future distribution of other species. This might be particularly interesting for other vector species that are of increasing public health concerns.

The National Center for Atmospheric Research and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) collaborated to develop a method to assess the interannual variability of wind and solar power over the contiguous United States under current and projected future climate conditions, for use with NREL’s Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model. The team leveraged a reanalysis-derived database to estimate the wind and solar power resources and their interannual variability under current climate conditions (1985–2005). Then, a projected future climate database for the time range of 2040–69 was derived on the basis of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) regional climate model (RCM) simulations driven by free-running atmosphere–ocean general circulation models. To compare current and future climate variability, the team developed a baseline by decomposing the current climate reanalysis database into self-organizing maps (SOMs) to determine the predominant modes of variability. The current climate patterns found were compared with those of an NARCCAP-based future climate scenario, and the CRCM–CCSM combination was chosen to describe the future climate scenario. The future climate scenarios’ data were projected onto the Climate Four Dimensional Data Assimilation reanalysis SOMs. The projected future climate database was then created by resampling the reanalysis on the basis of the frequency of occurrence of the future SOM patterns, adjusting for the differences in magnitude of the wind speed or solar irradiance between the current and future climate conditions. Comparison of the changes in the frequency of occurrence of the SOM modes between current and future climate conditions indicates that the annual mean wind speed and solar irradiance could be expected to change by up to 10% (increasing or decreasing regionally).

Using present and past climosequences to estimate soil organic carbon and related physical quality indicators under future climatic conditions

Nicotiana alata Link et Otto, widely used in landscaping, is not only of great ornamental value but also of high commercial and medical value. The global potential habitat of N. alata and the environmental factors affecting its distribution are not that clear at present. To provide a reference for the reasonable and extensive planting of N. alata now and in the future, the MaxEnt model was used to predict its global suitable habitats under current and future climate conditions, respectively, based on global geographic distribution data of N. alata and the current and future world bioclimatic variables. The results showed that mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio9), precipitation of driest month (bio14), precipitation seasonality (bio15) and max temperature of warmest month (bio5), were the key bioclimatic variables governing the distribution of N. alata. The global suitable habitats of N. alata were mainly distributed in Europe, the United States, southeastern South America, and China under current climate conditions. Compared with current climate conditions, the future climate decreased suitable habitats of N. alata under SSP1-2.6, and SSP2-4.5 scenario and increased suitable habitats of N. alata under SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 climatic scenarios. The results provided valuable information and theoretical reference for the reasonable planting of N. alata.

Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) in central Nepal is known for its rich biodiversity and the landscape is expected to provide corridors for species range shift in response to climate change. Environmental assessments have identified biological invasions and other anthropogenic activities as major threats to the biodiversity in the CHAL. One of the rapidly spreading Invasive Alien Plant species (IAPs) in the CHAL is Parthenium hysterophorus L., a neotropical invasive weed of global significance. This study aimed to investigate the current and future projected suitable habitat of P. hysterophorus in the CHAL using MaxEnt modelling in three “Representative Concentration Pathways” (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) corresponding to different greenhouse gases emission trajectories for the year 2050 and 2070. A total of 288 species occurrence points, six bioclimatic variables - mean diurnal range, isothermality, annual precipitation, precipitation of driest month, precipitation seasonality, precipitation of driest quarter and two topographic variables (aspect and slope) were selected for MaxEnt modelling. Potential range shift in terms of increase or decline in the suitable habitat areas under the projected scenarios were calculated. Slope and annual precipitation were the most important variables that explained the current distribution of P. hysterophorus. Twenty percent of the total area of CHAL was predicted to be suitable habitat for the growth of P. hysterophorus in the current climatic condition. Highest gain in the suitable habitat of this noxious weed was found under RCP 4.5 scenario in 2050 and 2070, whereas there will be a loss in the suitable habitat under RCP 8.5 scenario in 2050 and 2070. Out of four physiographic regions present in CHAL, three regions - Siwalik, Middle Mountain and High Mountain have suitable habitat for P. hysterophorus under current climatic condition. The mountainous region is likely to be affected more than the Siwalik region by further spread of P. hysterophorus in the future under low (RCP 2.6) to medium (RCP 4.5) emission scenarios. The suitable habitat for this weed is likely to increase in the protected areas of mountain regions (Langtang National Park, Annapurna Conservation Area and Manaslu Conservation Area) in the future. The results have revealed a risk of spreading P. hysterophorus from present localities to non-invaded areas in the current and future climatic condition. Such risk needs to be considered by decision makers and resource managers while planning for effective management of this weed to reduce its ecological and economic impacts in the CHAL.

The potential effect of climate change on the optimal allocation of irrigation water was investigated for a Southern Italy district. The study was carried out on 5 representative crops (grapevine, olive, sugar beet, processing tomato, asparagus), considering six simulated climate change conditions, corresponding to three 30-year periods (2011-2040; 2041-2070; 2071-2100) for two greenhouse gas emission schemes proposed by IPCC (A2 and B1), plus the current climatic condition. The framework adopted was based on: i) the modeling of crop yield response for increasing levels of water supply, under current and future climatic conditions, through a non-linear regression equation and ii) the definition of the best water allocation by means of a mathematical optimization model written in the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). Total irrigation water (TIW) volume was allowed to vary from a low total supply 10,000 m3 to 7,000,000 m3, whilst a fixed surface, corresponding to that currently occupied in the studied district, was assigned to each crop. The economic return was studied in terms of Value of Production less the fixed and variable irrigation costs (VPlic). The TIW volume that maximized the VPlic of the whole district surface under the current climatic condition was 5,697,861 m3. The total volume was partitioned among the five crops as a function of the surface occupied: grapevine>olive>processing tomato>asparagus>sugar beet. Nevertheless, grapevine and olive received seasonal volumes corresponding only to 59% and 50% of total irrigation water requirements. On the contrary, processing tomato and asparagus received seasonal water volumes close to those fully satisfying irrigation water requirements (100% and 85% ETc). Future climatic conditions slightly differed from the current one for the expected optimal allocation. Under water shortage conditions (160,000 m3) the whole irrigation water was allocated to the horticultural crops. Forecasted growing season features varied to a different extent in relation to crop and scenario considered with the more intense changes observed for A2 and olive.

Prevention of non-native species introductions and establishment is essential to avoid adverse impacts of invasive species in marine environments. To identify potential new invasive species and inform non-native species management options for the northern Gulf of Mexico (Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas), 138 marine species were risk screened for current and future climate conditions using the Aquatic Species Invasiveness Screening Kit. Species were risk-ranked as low, medium, high, and very high risk based on separate (calibrated) thresholds for fishes, tunicates, and invertebrates. In the basic screening, 15 fishes, two tunicates, and 26 invertebrates were classified as high or very high risk under current climate conditions. Whereas, under future climate conditions, 16 fishes, three tunicates, and 33 invertebrates were classified as high or very high risk. Very high risk species included: California scorpionfish Scorpaena guttata, red scorpionfish Scorpaena scrofa, purple whelk Rapana venosa, and Santo Domingo false mussel Mytilopsis sallei under both current and future climates, with weedy scorpionfish Rhinopias frondosa, Papuan scorpionfish Scorpaenopsis papuensis, daggertooth pike conger Muraenesox cinereus, yellowfin scorpionfish Scorpaenopsis neglecta, tassled scorpionfish Scorpaenopsis oxycephalus, brush-clawed shore crab Hemigrapsus takanoi, honeycomb oyster Hyotissa hyotis, carinate rock shell Indothais lacera, and Asian green mussel Perna viridis under climate change conditions only. This study provides evidence to inform trans-boundary management plans across the five Gulf of Mexico states to prevent, detect, and respond rapidly to new species arrivals.

There is a significant impact of climate change on species distribution and vegetation patterns in high mountain regions, which is a major topic of research in biogeography. It has recently warmed up on the Western Sichuan Plateau, one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change. Based on the MaxEnt model, we were able to predict distributions based on current and future climate conditions, and determine the trend of distribution change and the underlying climate factors. Under current climate conditions, the two typical tree species display distinct spatial distributions. Furthermore, under future climate conditions, distribution ranges of both typical tree species will shrink and move to the northern part of the plateau. The variation in temperature between seasons and years affected the distribution of two tree species. This study provided a scientific basis for understanding how high mountain and plateau forests respond to climate change.

Predicting seedling development for two commercial forest species under current and future climates: A multi-model assessment

Astragalus variabilis is a locoweed of northwest China that can seriously impede livestock development. However, it also plays various ecological roles, such as wind protection and sand fixation. Here, we used an optimized MaxEnt model to predict the distribution of suitable habitat of A. variabilis under current (1970–2000) conditions and future (2021–2080) climate change scenarios based on recent occurrence records. The most important environmental variables (suitability ranges in parentheses) affecting the distribution of A. variabilis were average maximum temperature of February (–2.12–5.34°C), followed by total precipitation of June (2.06–37.33 mm), and topsoil organic carbon (0.36–0.69%). The habitat suitability of A. variabilis was significantly correlated with the frequency of livestock poisoning (p < 0.05). Under current climate conditions, the suitable environment of A. variabilis was distributed in central and western Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, central and northwestern Gansu, central and northwestern Qinghai, and the four basins around the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang. Under future climate conditions, the suitable habitat of A. variabilis shifted to higher latitudes and altitudes. No previous studies have used niche models to predict the suitable environment of this species nor analyzed the relationship between the habitat suitability of poisonous plants and the frequency of animal poisoning. Our findings provide new insights that will aid the prevention of livestock animal poisoning and the control of poisonous plants, promote the development of the livestock husbandry industry, and provide basic information that will facilitate the maintenance of the ecological balance of grassland ecosystems.

Aeolesthes sarta or Trirachys sarta is a polyphagous long-horned beetle that has caused severe damage to the Populus alba forests/plantations in its regions of origin. Climate change could accelerate the introduction and spread of invasive pest species, potentially causing ecological damage and economic losses. Furthermore, globalization and increased trade can inadvertently transport pests across borders into regions where they do not already occur. Hence, it is crucial to identify areas where the climate is most suitable for the establishment of A. sarta’s and which areas of the world are suitable for the growth of P. alba under climate change scenarios. This study employed the CLIMEX model to estimate the potential global distribution of A. sarta and its correlation with its dominant host, P. alba, under current climatic conditions and potential future scenarios, namely the A1B and A2 climate change scenarios (CCSs). Under current climatic conditions, the model indicates that the establishment of a climatically suitable habitat for A. sarta extends beyond its current known range. The model estimated that, under the world’s current climatic conditions, 41.06% of the world can provide suitable areas (EI &gt; 0) for the survival of A. sarta. For P. alba, under the current climatic conditions, suitable regions for the growth of P. alba are present in all continents (excluding Antarctica); under the world’s current climatic conditions, 53.52% of the world can provide suitable areas for the growth of P. alba (EI &gt; 0). Climate change will significantly alter the number of suitable habitats for A. sarta development and P. alba growth globally. In future climatic conditions, the number areas capable of supplying suitable habitats (EI &gt; 0) for A. sarta will slightly decrease to 40.14% (under A1B and A2 CCSs), while, for P. alba, the number areas capable of supplying suitable habitats will also marginally decrease to 50.39% (under A1B scenario), and this figure is estimated to drop to 48.41% (under A2 scenario) by the end century (2100). Asia, Europe, North America, South America, and Oceania have a high percentage of highly suitable areas for A. sarta development and P. alba growth under current climatic conditions; however, according to estimates of future climatic conditions, by the end century, only Asia, Europe, North America, and Oceania will have a high percentage of highly suitable areas for A. sarta development and P. alba growth. The range of highly suitable habitats is likely to increase in the northern hemisphere; however, this range is expected to shrink with regards to the southern hemisphere. The range contraction was higher under the A2 climate change scenario due to a higher warming trend than in the A1B scenario. Due to climate change, the range of A. sarta development shifted, as did the P. alba growth range, which, thanks to the suitable environmental conditions for the growth of P. alba, makes all those regions vulnerable to the introduction and development of A. sarta. Strict monitoring, prevention, and control measures at borders, airports, and seaports before the trade of P. alba and other suitable host species wood (logs/billets) are highly recommended to prevent the spread of A. sarta and ensure biodiversity security. It is expected that the A. sarta and P. alba climate models presented here will be useful for management purposes since both can be adapted to guide decisions about imparting resources to regions where the threat of pest invasion remains and away from regions where climate suitability is predicted to decrease in the future.

An approach towards an estimate of the impact of forest management and climate change on the European forest sector carbon budget: Germany as a case study