Trade dependency and Resilience: an analysis of Egypt’s Wheat import dynamics during the Russia-Ukraine War

In the article, the author analyzed the dynamics of Ukraine's foreign trade indicators for the period 2021–2023 (exports, imports, trade balance). It was established that the volume of foreign trade in Ukraine changed significantly after the beginning of 2022 due to the introduction of martial law, the breakdown of economic ties and problems with logistics at sea and on land. It was determined that the situation in the export sphere of Ukraine in 2023 is critical, it has worsened even in comparison with 2022. It is noted that the rate of reduction in the export of goods exceeds the rate of reduction in their import, which increased the negative balance indicator (especially in 2023). This situation is caused by the need to increase the volume of procurement of strategically important military goods and the corresponding support. It has been established that the state of war in Ukraine as a specific legal regime has completely changed the conditions of conducting foreign economic activity, which has led to the negative dynamics of export-import trade in goods. At the same time, trade-in services became impossible. It was noted that the legislation does not contain direct restrictions or bans on export-import, and the main measures were the embargo and the actual suspension of customs clearance of the goods of the aggressor countries. This led to the reorientation of foreign economic activity to other countries, in particular EU countries, which became more promising. The peculiarities of the strategy of the enterprise's foreign economic activity in crisis conditions are determined, in particular: a personalized approach; paying more attention to the logistics component; the complex nature of making changes in all business components; quick adaptation to changes in the external environment of international business; functional orientation and connections with competitive, resource, product and other types of strategies; different from existing management approaches due to the need to ensure international (global) competitiveness; formation and use of the enterprise's export potential in the long term; the obligation to ensure the survival and stability of the operation of the enterprise; conformity of the quality of export products with international standards; a significant difference in the product range and models of export products from the domestic market; the need to change the organizational structure, take into account legislative and other restrictions on the company's entry into the market of another country, and others.

This study investigates the intricate relationship between a nation’s GDP growth rate and three key variables: the number of granted patents, research and development (R&D) expenditure, and education expenditure. The purpose of the research is to discern the impact of these factors on GDP growth rates. Drawing on theoretical frameworks, including Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), and Canonical Correlation Regression (CCR) techniques, the paper employs a robust methodological approach to unveil insights into the dynamics of economic growth. Contrary to conventional assumptions, the results reveal a negative correlation between R&D expenditure and GDP growth rate. In contrast, the number of patents granted and education expenditure shows a positively significant effect on the GDP growth rate, underscoring the pivotal roles of intellectual property creation and education investment in fostering economic growth. The conclusion emphasizes the importance of a nuanced understanding of these relationships for policymakers. The research’s implications highlight the need for balanced investments in innovation and education. The originality and value of this study lie in its unique findings challenging established beliefs about the impact of R&D expenditure on economic growth.

The results of the estimates made using a method developed by the Gaidar Institute for decomposing Russia’s GDP growth rates show that economic contraction in 2015 is determined by structural causes, according to the two scenarios within an updated forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development (MED). The structural causes are contraction of the fundamental growth factors (labor force and capital) as well as stagnation of the Total Factor Productivity, with a negative contribution of the other GDP growth rate components. In particular, the MED projects that the average annual price of crude oil in 2015 will be less than the long-time average annual, hence the foreign-trade component of GDP growth rates becomes negative in both forecast scenarios. The market-determined component of GDP growth rates in 2015 will continue to be negative and even decline compared to 2014, indicating that cyclical shrinkage of the Russian economy will increase. At the same time, a negative value of the output gap is indicative of that actual GDP will be less than potential GDP in 2015.

In this study, the relationship between tourism development and trade in 12 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries is examined during the period 1995-2019. Three proxies of trade are used, namely the total trade, total exports, and total imports of goods and services to examine this linkage, thereby leading to three separate model specifications. A wide range of modern econometric techniques were also employed to examine the relationship between the various proxies of trade and tourist arrivals. These include (i) cross-sectional dependence tests based on Breusch and Pagan (1980) LM, Pesaran (2004) scaled LM, Baltagi et al. (2012) bias-corrected scaled LM, and Pesaran (2004) CD; (ii) an ECM panel cointegration test based on Westerlund (2007); and (iii) a heterogeneous panel causality model based on Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012), among others. Using the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS), the study found that, overall, international tourism has a positive and significant impact on trade in SSA countries. This finding is also corroborated by the heterogeneous Granger causality test, which found a distinct unidirectional causal flow from international tourist arrivals to trade. The study, therefore, recommends that SSA countries should implement policies aimed at promoting international tourism in order to increase their international trade and boost their overall trade balance.

This study examines foreign direct investment (FDI)-growth and trade-growth relationships in Bangladesh during three major crises: the economic crisis of 2007–2008, the commodity crisis of 2016, and the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic of 2020. The augmented autoregressive distributed lag (AARDL) bounds testing approach and Bayer and Hanck cointegration are employed on time-series data spanning the period 1974–2020. The results suggest that exports have positive effects on economic growth, while imports have insignificant effects in both the short run and long run. Total trade (the sum of exports and imports) has a positive but weakly significant effect on economic growth only in the long run, whereas FDI exhibits a positive effect in both the short run and long run. Although the crises are not found to affect economic growth directly or through trade (i.e., no dampening effect on trade-led growth), they are found to distort FDI-led growth in both the short run and long run. As robustness tests for long-run elasticities, the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) cointegration techniques are implemented, yielding results similar to those obtained with the AARDL.

The main objective of this study is to investigate the influence of the globalisation (Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement in particular) on air pollution in Malaysia. To achieve this goal, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, Johansen cointegration test and fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) methods are utilised. CO2 emission is used as an indicator of pollution while GDP per capita and urbanisation serve as its other determinants. In addition, this study uses Malaysia's total trade with 10 TPP members as an indicator of globalisation and analyse its effect on CO2 emission in Malaysia. The outcome of this research shows that the variables are cointegrated. Additionally, GDP per capita, urbanisation and trade between Malaysia and its 10 TPP partners have a positive impact on CO2 emissions in general. Based on the outcome of this research, important policy implications are provided for the investigated country.

The article reveals the theoretical principles of anti-crisis management of the enterprise's foreign economic activity. The essence of the concept of crisis is revealed. Attention is drawn to the importance of adaptive anti-crisis management aimed at responding to changes and using opportunities to ensure the sustainable development of the enterprise in the conditions of the external environment. The internal and external causes of the crisis are singled out. The classification, tasks, and main principles of anti-crisis management are substantiated. The key elements of managing the foreign economic activity of the enterprise in crisis conditions, as well as the main approaches to minimizing the impact of threats, are considered. Taking into account the importance of developing anti-crisis programs to prevent and overcome crises at the enterprise, the key methods of work to minimize the impact of threats to the enterprise's foreign economic activity were analyzed, such as: minimizing threats through diversification, information search, risk management, interaction with the environment, control of the internal environment. Diversification approaches have been proven to be the most common and effective in protecting foreign economic activity, but require careful, long-term planning and significant financial investment. It is substantiated that obtaining timely information about the state of the market and the industry is an important step toward reducing threats. Attention is drawn to the fact that risk management covers a wider range of actions than crisis management, including identification, analysis, assessment, management, and mitigation of risks that may arise. Emphasis is placed on ensuring the appropriate level of resource reservation, which is aimed at maintaining the necessary stock of cash, raw materials, goods, and other necessary materials. The importance of establishing long-term partnership relations in the implementation of the enterprise's foreign economic activity has been proven. It has been proven that a comprehensive approach to the creation of a system of anti-crisis management of the enterprise's foreign economic activity should include the organization, planning, and implementation of not only specific competencies but also effective management tools that will help the enterprise adapt to changes and increase its competitiveness.

The 2023 has seen a significant increase in the sanctions pressure on Russia and Russian national economy from geo-economic and geo-political opponents. Such a pressure affected, in particular, the oil production and oil refining industries. From December 5, 2022, most Western countries introduced a price ceiling for the purchase of Russian crude oil ($60 per barrel), and from February 5, 2023, on Russian petroleum products traded at a premium and at a discount to crude oil ($100 per barrel and $45 per barrel, respectively). Under these conditions, it is important to foresee what impact the above price and other sanctions will have on the dynamics of Russia’s GDP and its growth. As a forecasting tool, we use the macroeconomic production function, where GDP depends on fixed assets, the level of their use, the labor and the world price of Urals oil, the values of which were selected in accordance with forecasts of the Bank of Russia and the Russian Ministry of Economic Development at the level of $55 and $65 per barrel (in 2010 dollars). The originality and advantage of this production function over many other forecast models are the following: firstly, its average ex-post forecast errors for 22 years ahead do not exceed 5,1%, and, secondly, over these years the direction of the dynamics of ex-post forecast GDP coincides almost everywhere with the direction of the dynamics of actual GDP, including during the crisis of 2009, sanctions pressure started in 2014 and the epidemic of the Wuhan coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 in 2020-2021. The results of econometric forecasting showed the following: at a price of $55, the minimum growth rate of Russia's GDP will be – 1,1%, the average will be 0,2%, and the maximum will reach 1,6%. At a price of $65, the minimum growth rate of Russia's GDP will be 1,7%, the average will be 3,1%, and the maximum will be 4,5%. Thus, according to our forecasts, the Russian economy will grow, instead of falling into recession as many geo-economic and geo-political opponents of Russia would anticipate.

This study aimed to measure the effect of trade openness and agriculture on deforestation in Cameroon from 1980 to 2021 by using a fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) approach. Data used are from the World Bank and FAO. The results obtained indicate that when trade openness increases, deforestation also increases, but when trade openness increases up to a certain threshold, deforestation decreases. This study also reveals that agriculture is one of the major causes of deforestation in Cameroon. Agricultural output and agricultural value-added both have a positive and significant impact on deforestation. There is an inverted curve relationship between economic growth and deforestation in Cameroon, this shows that the EKC is respected with deforestation as it is postulated that at higher levels of income, GDP turns to reduce deforestation meaning a unit change in GDP2 leads to a reduction of deforestation. We recommend the implementation of concrete actions and strict environmental policies focused on a green economy, to control the exploitation of natural resources with particular attention to the sustainable exploitation of wood. Sustainable agricultural practices should also be implemented, as well as more suitable liberal trade policies.

The results of the estimates obtained using the Gaidar Institute method of decomposing Russia’s GDP growth rates show that in 2015 all of the components of economic growth rates will make them negative. Furthermore, the current economic contraction is mostly of structural nature induced by the contraction of labor force and capital, as well as the stagnation of the total factor productivity. Additionally, in 2015, the average annual price of crude oil is more likely to fall below the long-time average annual, thereby making negative the foreign trade component of GDP growth rates. The market-determined component of GDP growth rates in 2015 will remain negative and even lower than that in 2014, being indicative of a stronger cyclical economic contraction in Russia. Therefore, the actual GDP appears to be below the potential value.

Purpose: This study investigates the effectiveness of health-aid in Nigeria, with focus on child health outcomes. In particular, the study aims to examine whether health aid has yielded significant gains in child health in Nigeria. Methodology/Approach/Design: Secondary data on neonatal, infant and under 5 mortality as well as measles and DPT immunization were used. The stationarity of the variables was ascertained using the augmented Dickey-Fuller and Philip-Perron unit root tests. In order to confirm the presence or otherwise of long-run relationship among the selected variables, Johansen cointegration test was carried out and the obtained coefficients and p-values indicate evidences of long-run relationship. Finally, the study used the fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) estimator to examine the effects of aid targeted at children health on the various child health outcomes. Results: The results suggest the existence of long-run relationships between health aid and child health indicators, with aid having reducing impacts on the mortality indicators and a positive correlation with child immunization coverage. Also, public health expenditure, literacy rate and urbanization rate are negatively correlated with measures of children mortality and positively correlated with the measures of immunization coverage. Except for infant mortality, economic growth proxy by GDP growth rate has insignificant effect on child health. Practical Implications: Sustained improvement in children health is the core objective of aids aimed at children’s health, and findings of this research will serve as a framework for health policymakers in understanding the contributions of health aid inflow to specific indicators of child health in Nigeria. Originality/Value: This study makes a number of contributions to the ongoing discussion on the effectiveness of health-specific ODA in Nigeria. Despite the inconclusiveness of the health aid-health outcomes literature, this study has shown that children health aid has led to improvement in children health in Nigeria. While previous studies have focused on child mortality indicators, this study examined the effect on various measures of children health including children immunization coverage.

The study investigated the relationship between corruption and economic growth in Nigeria using data from 1996 to 2020. The research employed the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) method and Granger causality tests. The FMOLS results indicated that both gross fixed capital formation and urbanization significantly and positively influence economic growth in Nigeria, whereas the corruption index has a negative and significant effect, aligning with the "sand the wheels" theory. The Granger causality analysis showed a unidirectional relationship, where gross fixed capital formation Granger-causes GDP growth rate, and GDP growth rate Granger-causes both the corruption index and the relative corruption ranking in Nigeria. Based on these results, the study recommends that policymakers prioritise transparency and good governance by implementing e-governance initiatives to reduce bureaucratic hurdles and opportunities for corruption. Furthermore, there should be consistent monitoring and thorough evaluation of the impact of anti-corruption strategies on economic growth and development to ensure their effectiveness.

This research delves into the correlation between institutional quality and tourism development in a panel of nine Mediterranean countries within the European Union spanning from 1996 to 2021. The study gauges tourism development by examining tourist arrivals, while considering GDP growth rate, inflation, higher education, environmental quality, and trade as control variables representing factors influencing tourism. Institutional quality is measured through indicators such as regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption. Utilizing Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) models, the study aims to quantify the impact of these factors on tourism development. The findings indicate a positive relationship between institutional quality and tourism, shedding light on the pivotal role of institutions in tourism management and their influence on the sector. These results have implications for shaping national development strategies.

This research discovers how international tourism affects the economic growth of selected Asian states, e.g., Bangladesh, China, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, throughout 2001–2019. To attain this objective, we have employed various regression estimation approaches, e.g., Fixed Effect Model (FEM) and Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) technique. The statistical results of the applied techniques reveal that international tourism activities have a positive and significant effect on the GDP growth rate because such kinds of activities considerably contribute to creating opportunities that lead to hoist economic activities and economic growth. Moreover, an influx of tourism increases tourism activities and operations, which opens further doors to opportunities and generates revenue for the government. Similarly, the GDP per capita has been positively and significantly influenced by international tourism activities. The government and host country should emphasize the activities and operations regarding tourism and should also concentrate on the dynamic role, importance, and sensitivity of tourism operations in under-analyzed economies. This research brings a new arrangement of the variable, which has never been considered in prior literature.

Foreign capital is regarded as a vital resource for raising a developing nation's standard of living and wellbeing. Researchers and academics are concentrating on analyzing how foreign capital affects emerging nations. This study examines how foreign capital affects the economic growth of six South Asian nations between 2001 and 2020. The primary measures of foreign capital utilized in this study are official development assistance, foreign direct investment, and migrant remittances. The GDP growth rate is a measure of macroeconomic performance. The empirical analysis is conducted using sophisticated panel data estimate methods, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS), and Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS). The study concludes that official development assistance has a negative impact on economic growth, whereas remittances and foreign direct investment have a beneficial effect.