Abstract
A Lagrangian trajectory model, TRACMASS with the use of velocity fields calculated by the Rossby Centre (Swedish Hydrological and Meteorological Institute) circulation model, is employed to analyse trajectories of current-driven surface transport in the Gulf of Finland, the Baltic Sea, for the period of 1987-1991. Statistical analysis of trajectories is performed to calculate a map of probabilities for adverse impacts released in different sea areas to hit the coast. There is a clearly defined curve (equiprobability line) in the western part of the gulf from which the chances of the propagation of adverse impacts to either of the coasts are equal. The current-driven propagation of tracers from a wide area (of reduced risk) to the coast in the central and eastern parts of the gulf is unlikely within about three weeks. A safe fairway in terms of coastal protection goes over the equiprobability line and the area of reduced risk.
Highlights
A Lagrangian trajectory model, TRACMASS with the use of velocity fields calculated by the Rossby Centre (Swedish Hydrological and Meteorological Institute) circulation model, is employed to analyse trajectories of current-driven surface transport in the Gulf of Finland, the Baltic Sea, for the period of 1987–1991
Statistical analysis of trajectories is performed to calculate a map of probabilities for adverse impacts released in different sea areas to hit the coast
A safe fairway in terms of coastal protection goes over the equiprobability line and the area of reduced risk
Summary
A Lagrangian trajectory model, TRACMASS with the use of velocity fields calculated by the Rossby Centre (Swedish Hydrological and Meteorological Institute) circulation model, is employed to analyse trajectories of current-driven surface transport in the Gulf of Finland, the Baltic Sea, for the period of 1987–1991. The existence of quasi-persistent patterns of currents in various parts of the Baltic Sea (Lehmann et al, 2002; Andrejev et al, 2004a, 2004b; Osinski and Piechura, 2009) leads to the interplay of the high variability and extreme complexity of the surface currents with the presence of rapid pathways of the current-driven transport (Soomere et al, 2010) This combination opens a principally new way towards a technology that uses the marine dynamics for the reduction of environmental risks stemming from shipping and offshore and coastal engineering activities. Soomere et al.: Identification of areas of reduced risks direction is made by means of numerical identification of patterns of net transport and the ratio of the net and bulk transport in the Gulf of Finland, the Baltic Sea (Soomere et al, 2010)
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