Towards an evidence base of theory-driven evaluations: Some questions for proponents of theory-driven evaluation

Abstract

This article discusses the further development of theory-driven evaluation approaches that are informed by contribution analysis. Using an illustrative example of an ongoing dance/physical activity programme for health promotion, a number of challenges are identified when applying a theory-driven evaluation approach. These challenges are reformulated as questions that need to be answered to make further progress with theory-driven evaluation including contribution analysis. Questions include: What is a ‘good enough’ programme theory? How does one arrive at expectations of programme impacts? How does the programme theory incorporate heterogeneous mechanisms that programme recipients might need? What does causality mean for complex interventions? What are structures that can facilitate learning from evaluations? How does the application of theory-driven evaluation approaches help generate an ‘ecology of evidence’? Discussion of these questions leads to a ‘roadmap’ for how contribution analysis might be further tested and refined.