Toward Scatterometer Winds Assimilation in the Mesoscale HARMONIE Model

Abstract

Data assimilation (DA) experiments have been conducted with the high-resolution limited-area model HirLAM Aladin Regional Mesoscale Operational NWP In Euromed (HARMONIE), which is operational at most weather centers, which are part of the European HirLAM consortium. Recently, the assimilation of scatterometer ocean surface winds was introduced, showing limited forecast skill improvement. Possible explanations are discussed. These include model bias and the time mismatch between observation and analysis time, which introduces nonnegligible correlated errors in a three-dimensional (3-D) variational assimilation system. Also, ignoring the time mismatch increases the innovation, i.e., the observation minus background (model short-term forecast), by about 20% for scatterometer winds. The use of observations as point observations in most DA systems needs reconsideration for mesoscale DA. The introduction of observation operators, taking into account the instrument footprint, would improve the innovation by about 5% for scatterometer winds. Additional directions for improved use of observations in HARMONIE are discussed based on the notice that DA is an inherent deterministic concept. Hence, the selection of the spatial scale for deterministic DA should depend primarily on the 4-D observation coverage rather than the effective model resolution.