Tourism, energy use, and urban growth: implications for load capacity and sustainable development

Urban growth is a major threat to biodiversity conservation at the global scale. Its impacts are expected to be especially detrimental when it sprawls into the landscape and reaches sites of high conservation value due to the species and ecosystems they host, such as protected areas. I analyzed the degree of urbanization (i.e., urban cover and growth rate) from 2006 to 2015 in protected sites in the Natura 2000 network, which, according to the Habitats and Birds Directives, harbor species and habitats of high conservation concern in Europe. I used data on the degree of land imperviousness from COPERNICUS to calculate and compare urban covers and growth rates inside and outside Natura 2000. I also analyzed the relationships of urban cover and growth rates with a set of characteristics of Natura sites. Urban cover inside Natura 2000 was 10 times lower than outside (0.4% vs. 4%) throughout the European Union. However, the rates of urban growth were slightly higher inside than outside Natura 2000 (4.8% vs. 3.9%), which indicates an incipient urban sprawl inside the network. In general, Natura sites affected most by urbanization were those surrounded by densely populated areas (i.e., urban clusters) that had a low number of species or habitats of conservation concern, albeit some member states had high urban cover or growth rate or both in protected sites with a large number of species or habitats of high conservation value. Small Natura sites had more urban cover than large sites, but urban growth rates were highest in large Natura sites. Natura 2000 is protected against urbanization to some extent, but there is room for improvement. Member states must enact stricter legal protection and control law enforcement to halt urban sprawl into protected areas under the greatest pressure from urban sprawl (i.e., close to urban clusters). Such actions are particularly needed in Natura sites with high urban cover and growth rates and areas where urbanization is affecting small Natura sites of high conservation value, which are especially vulnerable and concentrated in the Mediterranean region.

As one of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals, it is sensible to analysis historical urban land use characteristics and project the potentials of urban sustainable development for a smart city. The cellular automaton (CA) model is the widely applied in simulating urban growth, but the optimum parameters of variables driving urban growth in the model remains to be continued to improve. We propose a novel model integrating an artificial fish swarm algorithm (AFSA) and CA for optimizing parameters of variables in the urban growth model and make a comparison between AFSA-CA and other five models, which is used to study a 40-year urban land growth of Wuhan. We found that the urban growth types from 1995 to 2015 appeared relatively consistent, mainly including infilling, edge-expansion and distant-leap types in Wuhan, which a certain range of urban land growth on the periphery of the central area. Additionally, although the genetic algorithms (GA)-CA model and the AFSA-CA model among the six models due to the distance variables, the parameter value of the GA-CA model is −15.5409 according to the fact that the population (POP) variable should be positively. As a result, the AFSA-CA model regardless of the initial parameter setting is superior to the GA-CA model and the GA-CA model is superior to all the other models. Finally, it is projected that the potentials of urban growth in Wuhan for 2025 and 2035 under three scenarios (natural urban land growth without any restrictions (NULG), sustainable urban land growth with cropland protection and ecological security (SULG), and economic urban land growth with sustainable development and economic development in the core area (EULG)) focus mainly on existing urban land and some new town centers based on AFSA-CA urban growth simulation model. An increasingly precise simulation can determine the potential increase area and quantity of urban land, providing a basis to judge the layout of urban land use for urban planners.

Since 2000, China’s urban land has expanded at a dramatic speed because of the country’s rapid urbanization. The country has been experiencing unbalanced development between rural and urban areas, causing serious challenges such as agricultural security and land resources waste. Effectively evaluating the driving factors of urban land growth is essential for improving efficient land use management and sustainable urban development. This study established a principal component regression model based on eight indicators to identify their influences on urban land growth in Guangzhou. The results provided a grouping analysis of the driving factors, and found that economic growth, urban population, and transportation development are the driving forces of urban land growth of Guangzhou, while the tertiary industry has an opposite effect. The findings led to further suggestions and recommendations for urban sustainable development. Hence, local governments should design relevant policies for achieving the rational development of urban land use and strategic planning on urban sustainable development.

Teaching and Learning Guide for: Sustainable Development and Environmental Justice in African Cities

Since the end of apartheid in 1994, South Africa has experienced significant urban population growth, with major cities undergoing particularly rapid expansion. Understanding spatial urban expansion in developing cities, such as Rustenburg, is essential for sustainable infrastructure planning, environmental management, and service provision. This study modeled the spatial extent of urban growth in Rustenburg from 1994 to 2022 using Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) and predicted future urban expansion from 2022 to 2030 through the Cellular Automata Simulation in the MOLUSCE plugin. The results indicate that in 1994, water bodies covered 88,303 hectares, developed areas covered 125,763 hectares, and vegetation occupied 2,513,336 hectares. By 2022, vegetated regions covered 5,104,145 hectares, developed areas increased to 586,017 hectares, and mining zones expanded to 113,224 hectares. Furthermore, the landscape featured disjointed urban areas, varied natural ecosystems, and significant fragmentation in undeveloped zones. In 2022, the number of water patches increased to 27,845, built-up areas to 60,690, vegetated areas to 102,119, bare land to 80,921, and mining areas to 23,296 patches. The Kappa statistics ranged from 0.93 (93%) to 0.99 (99%), demonstrating high reliability in simulating urban growth patterns. An overall accuracy of 95% and a Kappa statistic of 0.93 are indeed higher than the mean scientifically accepted accuracy level of 85% for urban growth analysis. These findings highlight significant changes in land use and landscape fragmentation over time and provide critical insights into urban growth patterns and their implications for water security, sustainable development, and community livelihoods in Rustenburg, South Africa. By examining these patterns, we can better plan for sustainable infrastructure, manage environmental impacts, and improve service provision in rapidly expanding urban areas.

Sustainable community development: integrating environmental, economic, and social objectives

This survey study examined university lecturers’ participation in capacity building programmes in south-south Nigeria and its implication for sustainable development. It focuses on the extent of lecturers’ participation in workshops, seminars, conferences, ICT training and mentoring aspects of capacity building programmes. One research question and two hypotheses were drawn to direct this investigation. A stratified random sample of 320 lecturers was drawn from a population of 3203 lecturers in four federal universities located in this area of study. Data were collected using an instrument called “Capacity Building Programme Participation Questionnaire (CBPPQ)”, constructed by theresearchers. Data collected were subjected to statistical analysis with the use of descriptive statistics, Population t-test and Independent t-test. Findings revealed that university lecturers participate mostly in conferences than any other capacity building programme. Lecturers’ participation in capacity building programmes is significantly low with respect to workshops, seminars, conferences, ICT training and mentoring. There is no significant difference between male and female lecturers’ participation in capacity building programmes. It was recommended that enabling environment should be provided whereby university lecturers are encouraged to participate fully in capacity building programmes.Keywords: University lecturers’ capacity building; Sustainable development.

Driving force of urban growth and regional planning: A case study of China's Guangdong Province

The responses of ecosystem functions in Inner Mongolian grasslands to climate change have implications for ecosystem services and sustainable development. Research published in two previous Special Issues of The Rangeland Journal shows that recent climate change added to overgrazing and other factors caused increased degradation of Inner Mongolian rangelands whereas on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, climate change tended to ameliorate the impacts of overgrazing. Recent climate change on the Mongolian Plateau involved warming with increasingly variable annual precipitation and decreased summer rainfall. Future climate projections are different, involving modest increases in precipitation and further climate warming. Research published in the current Special Issue shows that precipitation is the climate factor that has the most substantial impact on ecosystem functions in this region and is positively correlated with plant species diversity, ecosystem carbon exchange and Normalised Difference Vegetation Index. Increased flows of provisioning and regulating ecosystem services are expected with future climate change indicating that its impacts will be positive in this region. However, spatial heterogeneity in the environments and climates of Inner Mongolia highlights the risk of over-generalising from local-scale studies and indicates the value of increased attention to meta-analysis and regional scale models. The enhanced flows of ecosystem services from climate change may support sustainable development by promoting recovery of degraded grasslands with flow-on benefits for livelihoods and the regional economy. However, realising these potential benefits will depend on sound landscape management and addressing the risk of herders increasing livestock numbers to take advantage of the extra forage available. Investment in education is important to improve local capacity to adapt rangeland management to climate change, as are policies and strategies that integrate social, economic and ecological considerations and are tailored to specific regions. Gaps in understanding that could be addressed through further research on ecosystem functions include; belowground carbon exchange processes; the impact of increased variability in precipitation; and the impact of different management practices under changed climates.

This article investigates the impact of two important socio‐economic variables—urbanization and industrialization—on energy consumption in a panel of emerging economies. The results indicate that income increases energy consumption in both the long run and the short run. In the long run, urbanization decreases energy consumption, while industrialization increases it. Long‐run dynamics are important as evidenced by the estimated coefficient on the error correction term. These results have implications for sustainable development. Economic growth policies designed to increase income and industrialization will increase energy consumption. Since most energy needs in emerging economies are currently met by the burning of fossil fuels, economic growth and industrialization policies will be at odds with sustainable development.

<div><p><em>This paper analysed the status of energy intensity of economic sectors (agriculture, industry, commercial, residential) in MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey) countries and its implications for sustainable development. We utilised descriptive statistics as well as the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition analysis to examine energy and efficiency trends, from 1980-2013, in MINT countries. Empirical results indicate inefficient energy use in the residential and industrial sectors of Nigeria and Indonesia. The analysis also indicates that income/output growth (activity effect) contributed to an increase in sectoral energy consumption of MINT countries. It also revealed that while structural effects contributed to a reduction in energy consumption in virtually all the sectors in Turkey and Mexico, it contributed to an increase in energy consumption of the residential, industrial and commercial sectors of Indonesia and Nigeria in virtually all the periods. These results suggest that a policy framework that emphasizes the utilization of energy efficient technologies especially electricity infrastructural development aimed at energy service availability, accessibility and affordability will help to trigger desirable economic development and ensure rapid sustainable development of MINT economies.</em></p></div>

The ESCAP region has undergone a substantial change in the growth and structure of the population over the past several decades. Several countries and areas of the ESCAP region have completed the demographic transition, reducing fertility and mortality to low levels, while in many others both fertility and mortality rates remain high. Levels of urbanization and growth of the urban population also vary across the region. This article examines the size, growth and distribution of the population and provides an overview of the patterns of urbanization and urban growth in the ESCAP region. It discusses new and emerging issues of demographic dynamics in the region, in areas such as the economic and social impact of ageing and international migration. Finally, it highlights the implications of the process of urbanization for promoting gender equality and equity, for sustainable development and for reducing the incidence of poverty.

The shadow economy weakens fiscal sustainability, hampers the financing of public goods, and impedes the achievement of sustainable development goals. The informal sector remains a persistent challenge for policymakers, as it distorts competition, reduces transparency, and undermines the effectiveness of economic and fiscal policies. The aim of this article is to identify the key factors determining the size of the shadow economy in European Union countries and to provide policy-relevant insights. The analysis covers data on the share of the informal economy in GDP and macroeconomic variables such as GDP per capita, consumer price index, average wages, household consumption, government expenditure, and unemployment, as well as indicators of digital development in society and the economy (DESI, IDT), the share of cashless transactions in GDP, and information on the implementation of digital tax administration tools and restrictions on cash payments. Five hypotheses (H1–H5) are formulated concerning the effects of income growth, labour market conditions, digitalisation, cashless payments, and tax administration tools on the shadow economy. The research question addresses which factors—macroeconomic conditions, economic and social digitalisation, payment structures, and fiscal innovations in tax administration—play the most significant role in determining the size of the shadow economy in EU countries and whether these mechanisms have broader implications for fiscal sustainability and sustainable development. The empirical strategy is based on multilevel models with countries as clusters, complemented by correlation and comparative analyses. The results indicate that the most significant factor in limiting the size of the shadow economy is the level of GDP per capita and its growth, whereas the impact of card payments appears to be superficial, reflecting overall increases in wealth. Higher wages, household consumption, and digital development as measured by the DESI also play an important role. The implementation of digital solutions in tax administration, such as SAF-T or e-PIT/pre-filled forms, along with restrictions on cash transactions, can serve as complementary measures. The findings suggest that sustainable strategies to reduce the shadow economy should combine long-term economic growth with digitalisation and improved tax administration, which may additionally foster the harmonisation of economic systems and support sustainable development.

Exergy for environment, ecology and sustainable development

This study explores economic activity, energy consumption, financial availability, and urban growth in determining environmental sustainability in the United States using the Load Capacity Factor (LCF) in the Load Capacity Curve (LCC) hypothesis. The analysis uses annual data from 1996 to 2022 and starts with a set of unit root tests (ADF, PP, and DF-GLS) to check the stationarity of the variables. The ARDL bound-testing model demonstrates a long-term equilibrium in the chosen indicators. Long-term estimates show that economic growth and improved financial accessibility enhance the LCF, reflecting better ecological conditions. However, the short-term dynamics differ: increases in GDP, rising energy consumption, and rapid urbanization exert downward pressure on LCF, highlighting transitional environmental stress during periods of accelerated development. Overall, the results suggest that while sustained economic progress and enhanced financial inclusion support long-run ecological resilience, the United States continues to face short-run environmental challenges driven by fossil-fuel-intensive energy use and urban population growth. These insights underscore the importance of a combined approach to policies that would strike a balance between economic goals and environmental protection in the long run by using cleaner forms of energy, practicing greener finances, and ensuring sustainable urban development.