Abstract
When making decisions under uncertainty, individuals may form subjective expectations about probabilities of events relevant for their choice. Accurate measurement of subjective expectations is critical for high-quality data needed to analyze individual behavior. This paper reports the development and validity of a new method of eliciting point subjective expectations in developing countries. We developed a touchscreen-based application that combines an animated slider along with dynamic images that change relative sizes based on the probability indicated by the respondent. We compare our method to the more traditional approach of using beans as visual aids. First, we find that respondents have a sound understanding of basic concepts of probability. Second, we test for equality of the distributions elicited with the different methods and find them highly comparable. Third, we provide evidence that respondents report a more favorable opinion about the slider method and more willingness to complete long surveys using the slider rather than beans. Our findings suggest that the slider could be a viable elicitation method for empirical researchers who aim to collect data on subjective expectations in developing countries.
Highlights
Our findings suggest that the slider could be a viable elicitation method for empirical researchers who aim to collect data on subjective expectations in developing countries
We describe the validation of a new touchscreen-based slider method that we developed to elicit subjective expectations data in rural Uttar Pradesh, India
Note that we use the example of the rain (Fig 1) to explain the method to the respondents, we use specific images for few of the initial questions to make the respondent familiar with the method, but we ask the entire set of questions in the survey with standard and consistent visual aids through the use of red bar graphs for the subjective expectations questions related to chronic diseases
Summary
Participation was voluntary and verbal informed consent was obtained from each of the respondents. The study protocol was approved by the Duke University Institutional Review Board (Durham, NC) and by Morsel Research and Development Pvt Ltd (Uttar Pradesh, India)
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