Abstract
Testing for the SARS-CoV-2 infection is critical for tracking the spread of the virus and controlling the transmission dynamics. In the early phase of the pandemic in Italy, the decentralized healthcare system allowed regions to adopt different testing strategies. The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of the extensive testing of symptomatic individuals and their contacts on the number of hospitalizations against a more stringent testing strategy limited to suspected cases with severe respiratory illness and an epidemiological link to a COVID-19 case. A Poisson regression modelling approach was adopted. In the first model developed, the cumulative daily number of positive cases and a temporal trend were considered as explanatory variables. In the second, the cumulative daily number of swabs was further added. The explanatory variable, given by the number of swabs over time, explained most of the observed differences in the number of hospitalizations between the two strategies. The percentage of the expected error dropped from 70% of the first, simpler model to 15%. Increasing testing to detect and isolate infected individuals in the early phase of an outbreak improves the capability to reduce the spread of serious infections, lessening the burden of hospitals.
Highlights
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), testing for SARS-CoV-2 infection is critical for tracking the viral spread in the population and reducing disease transmission [1]
The Republic of South Korea tested about 8000 people in every million in order to isolate infected individuals and quarantine their contacts [2], while in Europe, Germany processed more than 100,000 tests per week, testing around 6000 people for every million [3]
Present workwork reports an analysis of theof impact on theon unfolding of Covid-19 in two in two Italianin regions in the of the country, which wasaffected heavily by affected by the pandemic
Summary
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), testing for SARS-CoV-2 infection is critical for tracking the viral spread in the population and reducing disease transmission [1].Several experiences pointed out the importance of surveillance based on the isolation of cases, contact tracing, and the precautionary self-isolation of close contacts. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), testing for SARS-CoV-2 infection is critical for tracking the viral spread in the population and reducing disease transmission [1]. Different strategies to keep the virus under control have been adopted across regions in Italy, favoured by a highly decentralized healthcare system. In this regard, the Italian experience suggests that locking towns is necessary but not enough to control the spread of the disease [4]. In order to assess the impact of testing policies, we analyzed the experiences of Piemonte and Veneto, two Italian regions in the North of the country that, while both heavily affected by the pandemic, adopted two opposite strategies to contain the outbreak [5]
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