Time-varying associations between diabetes and mortality following COVID-19: Evidence from a U.S. Veteran population

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Prior studies suggest that diabetes is associated with severe outcomes following COVID-19. However, most research has focused on early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, and less is known about changing diabetes-associated risks over time. We constructed a retrospective cohort of U.S. Veterans with documented COVID-19 between March 2020 and August 2023 (N = 426,170). We used Poisson regression models to estimate relative risks of 60-day mortality following COVID-19 among Veterans with and without diabetes, incorporating demographic and clinical covariates, as well as weights to address unequal probabilities of selection into the sample. We then incorporated interaction terms representing six-month time windows and plotted predicted mortality risks over time. To contextualize risk estimates, we repeated the analysis among a cohort of Veterans without documented COVID-19. Diabetes was associated with overall higher risk of 60-day mortality following COVID-19 (RR = 1.21, 95% CI = 1.17–1.26). Mortality risks attenuated over time and converged with risks observed among Veterans without COVID-19 by March-August 2022. Results suggest that post-COVID-19 mortality risks associated with diabetes may have attenuated over time. Mechanisms underlying the attenuation of mortality risks were beyond the scope of the paper, however, future studies can potentially shed light on the contributions of population immunity (driven by previous infection or vaccination status), changing treatment patterns, and other factors to time-varying mortality risks following COVID-19 among individuals with diabetes.

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  • Minghao Liang + 5 more

BackgroundSepsis is a recognized global health challenge that places a considerable disease burden on countries. Although there has been some progress in the study of sepsis, the mortality rate of sepsis remains high. The relationship between serum osmolality and the prognosis of patients with sepsis is unclear.MethodPatients with sepsis who met the criteria in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV database were included in the study. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were determined using multivariable Cox regression. The relationship between serum osmolality and the 28-day mortality risk in patients with sepsis was investigated using curve fitting, and inflection points were calculated.ResultsA total of 13,219 patients with sepsis were enrolled in the study; the mean age was 65.1 years, 56.9 % were male, and the 28-day mortality rate was 18.8 %. After adjusting for covariates, the risk of 28-day mortality was elevated by 99% (HR 1.99, 95%CI 1.74-2.28) in the highest quintile of serum osmolality (Q5 >303.21) and by 59% (HR 1.59, 95%CI 1.39-1.83) in the lowest quintile (Q1 ≤285.80), as compared to the reference quintile (Q3 291.38-296.29). The results of the curve fitting showed a U-shaped relationship between serum osmolality and the risk of 28-day mortality, with an inflection point of 286.9 mmol/L.ConclusionThere is a U-shaped relationship between serum osmolality and the 28-day mortality risk in patients with sepsis. Higher or lower serum osmolality is associated with an increased risk of mortality in patients with sepsis. Patients with sepsis have a lower risk of mortality when their osmolality is 285.80-296.29 mmol/L.

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