Abstract
This paper deals with time variant overload reliability analysis of a mooring system due to corrosion deterioration. A probabilistic model for uniform corrosion is adopted to predict the strength degradation. A simplified method and nonlinear finite element analysis are used to calculate the breaking strength of the chain link and comparison is made. The strength of one mooring line is modeled by a weakest link system. The effect of correlation in corrosion models for different chain links in one mooring line and the effect of higher corrosion rate in the splash zone are discussed. The annual failure probability of the most loaded mooring line of a semi-submersible is calculated. The first and second order motions of the semi-submersible and the corresponding line tensions are found by a simplified analysis. The time variant reliability analysis is performed by approximating the degraded strength by a piece-wise constant model. The annual failure probability is obtained for different years. It is found that the annual failure probability increases significantly as the chain is corroded.
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