Time trends in cardiovascular disease mortality attributable to non-optimal temperatures in China: An age-period-cohort analysis using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Abstract

Associations between non-optimal temperatures and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality risk have been previously reported, yet the trends of CVD mortality attributable to non-optimal temperatures remain unclear in China. We analyzed trends in CVD mortality attributable to non-optimal temperatures and associations with age, period, and birth cohort. Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to calculate annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) from 1990 to 2019. We used the age-period-cohort model to analyze age, period, and cohort effects in CVD mortality attributable to non-optimal temperatures between 1990 and 2019. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of CVD attributable to non-optimal temperature generally declined in China from 1990 to 2019, whereas ischemic heart disease (IHD) increased slightly. Low temperatures have a greater death burden than high temperatures, but the death burden from high temperatures showed steady increases. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that CVD mortality decreased in all age groups except for IHD, and the decreases were greater in females than in males. The mortality of CVD attributable to non-optimal temperatures of males was higher than females. The mortality rate showed an upwards trend with age across all CVD categories. Period risks were generally found in unfavorable trends. The cohort effects showed a progressive downward trend during the entire period. Although there have been reductions in CVD mortality attributable to non-optimum temperatures, the mortality of IHD has increased and the burden from non-optimal temperatures remains high in China. In the context of global climate change, our results call for more attention and strategies to address climate change that protect human health from non-optimal temperatures.