Abstract
Abstract This study describes risk factors associated with mortality among COVID-19 cases reported in the WHO African region between 21 March and 31 October 2020. Average hazard ratios of death were calculated using weighted Cox regression as well as median time to death for key risk factors. We included 46 870 confirmed cases reported by eight Member States in the region. The overall incidence was 20.06 per 100 000, with a total of 803 deaths and a total observation time of 3 959 874 person-days. Male sex (aHR 1.54 (95% CI 1.31–1.81); P < 0.001), older age (aHR 1.08 (95% CI 1.07–1.08); P < 0.001), persons who lived in a capital city (aHR 1.42 (95% CI 1.22–1.65); P < 0.001) and those with one or more comorbidity (aHR 36.37 (95% CI 20.26–65.27); P < 0.001) had a higher hazard of death. Being a healthcare worker reduced the average hazard of death by 40% (aHR 0.59 (95% CI 0.37–0.93); P = 0.024). Time to death was significantly less for persons ≥60 years (P = 0.038) and persons residing in capital cities (P < 0.001). The African region has COVID-19-related mortality similar to that of other regions, and is likely underestimated. Similar risk factors contribute to COVID-19-associated mortality as identified in other regions.
Highlights
In late December 2019, a novel coronavirus identified as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) was detected in several cases of pneumonia in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China [1]
The purpose of this study is to describe the risk factors associated with mortality among COVID-19 cases reported in the World Health Organisation (WHO) African region in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic between 21 March and 31 October 2020, to understand if these differ from other regions, and to inform future measures that should be taken by public health authorities to address and mitigate the impact in the WHO African region
Of the 194 777 COVID-19 cases reported in countries of the WHO African region from March to 31 October 2020, we selected 46 870 cases (24%) for the study with a total observation time of 3 959 874 person-days
Summary
In late December 2019, a novel coronavirus identified as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) was detected in several cases of pneumonia in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China [1]. Mortality from SARS-CoV-2 is lower, transmission is higher when compared to other emerging coronaviruses causing severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemics over the last two decades [2–4]. As of February 2021, the global case fatality ratio (CFR) for SARS-CoV-2 was estimated at 2.3% [5], compared to 9.7% for SARS-CoV which emerged in late 2002 [3], and 34% for Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) which emerged in 2012 [4]. The basic reproductive rate (R0) for SARS-CoV-2 is 2.5 compared to 2.4 for SARS-CoV and 0.69 for MERS-CoV [2, 6]. Of similar R0 to SARS-CoV based on available data, SARS-CoV-2 has spread rapidly to all continents
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
