Abstract
A range of issues related to the results of the analysis of some meteorological and solar series of satellite observations in the Kara-Dag area (Crimea) is considered. A qualitative and quantitative picture of changes in the total insolation falling on the Earth’s surface, air temperature at a height of 2 m, and the Earth’s surface temperature in Kara-Dag over the past 38 years is presented. A numerical model has been constructed that makes it possible to predict the most powerful fluctuation with a period of 1 year in the analyzed data. The following methods were used in the work: the method of wavelet analysis, statistical methods for extracting Gaussian and non-Gaussian noise, an iterative method for constructing and estimating the accuracy of model approximations. Coherent variations in the analyzed and some global geodynamic and solar time series were established using two-channel autoregressive analysis. A qualitative characteristic of the process of changing the main variations in the analyzed time series was obtained using the analysis of phase trajectories on the Poincaré plane.
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