Time Series Analysis of Egg Prices Across Nigeria for Sustainable Food Security

Abstract

The ability to forecast the future has always been of great interest to humanity, in order to take one kind of informed decision or the other. In this research work, time series analysis such as Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was employed to analyse the monthly price of egg (medium size) across all 6 geo-political regions in Nigeria from 2016-2019 with intent to forecast future prices of egg in the 6 regions. Two ARIMA models (ARIMA (3,1,0) & ARIMA (3,1,1)) were used on the dataset, with ARIMA (3,1,0) found to be more suitable for the dataset used. The results show a steadily rising price of eggs across all zones in the country, projecting into 2022; and this could in turn affect the ability of the average Nigerian to afford this meal that is very rich in protein, vitamins and minerals. This rising price could be attributed to the high cost of poultry feed as well as other production inputs. In the long run, the rising prices of poultry eggs may lead to low patronage. Hence both private farmers and government agency should device inclusive policy to stem the tide of this rising cost of eggs for sustainability of food security in the country. Keywords: Egg, Time Series, Food Security, Protein, Vitamins, Minerals CISDI Journal Reference Format Waidor, Tamaramiebi K. & Akpojaro, Jackson (2022): Time Series Analysis of Egg Prices across Nigeria for Sustainable Food Security. Computing, Information Systems, Development Informatics & Allied Research Journal. Vol 13 No 1, Pp 19-30.. DOI: dx.doi.org/1022624/AIMS/CISDI/V13N1P3. Available online at www.isteams.net/cisdijournal