Tidewater and lake-terminating glaciers are systematically thicker

Twenty-first century sea-level rise could exceed IPCC projections for strong-warming futures

Future sea-level rise from tidewater and ice-shelf tributary glaciers of the Antarctic Peninsula

Using a two‐dimensional ocean thermohaline circulation model, we varied the cavity shape beneath Amery Ice Shelf in an attempt to reproduce the 150‐m‐thick marine ice layer observed at the “G1” ice core site. Most simulations caused melting rates which decrease the ice thickness by as much as 400 m between grounding line and G1, but produce only minor accumulation at the ice core site and closer to the ice front. Changes in the seafloor and ice topographies revealed a high sensitivity of the basal mass balance to water column thickness near the grounding line, to submarine sills, and to discontinuities in ice thickness. Model results showed temperature/salinity gradients similar to observations from beneath other ice shelves where ice is melting into seawater. Modeled outflow characteristics at the ice front are in general agreement with oceanographic data from Prydz Bay. A freshwater flux across the grounding line, derived from melting beneath the grounded ice sheet, would have to be anomalously large to produce the basal marine ice layer and account for the Ice Shelf Water outflow. We concur with Morgan's inference that the G1 core may have been taken in a basal crevasse filled with marine ice. This ice is formed from water cooled by ocean/ice shelf interactions along the interior ice shelf base.

Abstract. In recent decades, rapid ice shelf disintegration along the Antarctic Peninsula has had a global impact through enhancing outlet glacier flow and hence sea level rise and the freshening of Antarctic Bottom Water. Ice shelf thinning due to basal melting results from the circulation of relatively warm water in the underlying ocean cavity. However, the effect of sub-shelf circulation on future ice shelf stability cannot be predicted accurately with computer simulations if the geometry of the ice shelf cavity is unknown. To address this deficit for Larsen C Ice Shelf, West Antarctica, we integrate new water column thickness measurements from recent seismic campaigns with existing observations. We present these new data here along with an updated bathymetry grid of the ocean cavity. Key findings include a relatively deep seabed to the southeast of the Kenyon Peninsula, along the grounding line and around the key ice shelf pinning-point of Bawden Ice Rise. In addition, we can confirm that the cavity's southern trough stretches from Mobiloil Inlet to the open ocean. These areas of deep seabed will influence ocean circulation and tidal mixing and will therefore affect the basal-melt distribution. These results will help constrain models of ice shelf cavity circulation with the aim of improving our understanding of sub-shelf processes and their potential influence on ice shelf stability. The datasets are comprised of all the new point measurements of seabed depth. We present the new depth measurements here, as well as a compilation of previously published measurements. To demonstrate the improvements to the sub-shelf bathymetry map that these new data provide we include a gridded data product in the Supplement of this paper, derived using the additional measurements of both offshore seabed depth and the thickness of grounded ice. The underlying seismic datasets that were used to determine bed depth and ice thickness are available at https://doi.org/10.5285/315740B1-A7B9-4CF0-9521-86F046E33E9A (Brisbourne et al., 2019), https://doi.org/10.5285/5D63777D-B375-4791-918F-9A5527093298 (Booth, 2019), https://doi.org/10.5285/FFF8AFEE-4978-495E-9210-120872983A8D (Kulessa and Bevan, 2019) and https://doi.org/10.5285/147BAF64-B9AF-4A97-8091-26AEC0D3C0BB (Booth et al., 2019).

<p>Mapping the ice bed interface with radar is challenging in many alpine glaciers where the ice is temperate, and in-ice absorption is high. It is also difficult in selected regions of polar ice sheets such as near grounding zones and in ice streams where clutter and rough beds increase incoherent volume scattering. The lack of information for the ice geometry impedes our process understanding, e.g., basal sliding (requires knowledge about the basal roughness) and the routing of subglacial water flow (requires knowledge on basal smoothness). The lack of observations to constrain variations in ice thickness on the sub-kilometre scale is thus still a bottleneck to confidently predict ice dynamics and expected rates of sea-level rise.</p><p>A recent development in radioglaciology, namely the application of phase-coherent polarimetric radar, provides an excellent opportunity to overcome these limitations. Radar polarimetry has made significant strides in the last few years to constrain internal ice structure and their impact on the deformation of ice sheets, including the reconstruction of ice micro-structure parameters previously obtained from ice cores. Here, we suggest that the ice-bed interface can be identified in characteristic patterns of the polarimetric coherence phase. This new metric provides information in areas where the backscattered power amplitude does not show any signatures of the ice-bed interface. We provide examples for this across a wide range of glaciological settings, including cold (Colle Gnifetti, Switzerland) and temperate (Hintereisferner, Austria) alpine glaciers, thin grounding zones (Ekström Ice Shelf, East Antarctica) and thick ice domes (Dome C, East Antarctica). If this holds, then the ice thickness mapping in challenging glaciological settings should preferably be done using a quad-polarimetric acquisition geometry. For ground-based surveys, this can be done using an autonomous ice rover, for which we provide a proof-of-concept study on the Ekström Ice Shelf in Antarctica.</p>

We introduce a newly developed global ice sheet model coupled to the Globally Resolved Energy Balance (GREB) climate model for the simulation of global ice sheet evolution on time scales of 100 kyr or longer (GREB-ISM v0.3). Ice sheets and ice shelves are simulated on a global grid, fully interacting with the climate simulation of surface temperature, precipitation, albedo, land-sea mask, topography and sea level. Thus, it is a fully coupled atmosphere, ocean, land and ice sheet model. We test the model in ice sheet stand-alone and fully coupled simulations. The ice sheet model dynamics behave similarly to other hybrid SIA (Shallow Ice Approximation) and SSA (Shallow Shelf Approximation) models, but the West Antarctic Ice Sheet accumulates too much ice using present-day boundary conditions. The coupled model simulations produce global equilibrium ice sheet volumes and calving rates similar to observed for present day boundary conditions. We designed a series of idealised experiments driven by oscillating solar radiation forcing on periods of 20 kyr, 50 kyr and 100 kyr in the Northern Hemisphere. These simulations show clear interactions between the climate system and ice sheets, resulting in slow build-up and fast decay of ice-covered areas and global ice volume. The results also show that Northern Hemisphere ice sheets respond more strongly to time scales longer than 100 kyr. The coupling to the atmosphere and sea level leads to climate interactions between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The model can run global simulations of 100 kyr per day on a desktop computer, allowing the simulation of the whole Quaternary period (2.6 Myrs) within one month.

Abstract. We introduce a newly developed global ice sheet model coupled to the Globally Resolved Energy Balance (GREB) climate model for the simulation of global ice sheet evolution on timescales of 100 kyr or longer (GREB-ISM v1.0). Ice sheets and ice shelves are simulated on a global grid, fully interacting with the climate simulation of surface temperature, precipitation, albedo, land–sea mask, topography and sea level. Thus, it is a fully coupled atmosphere, ocean, land and ice sheet model. We test the model in ice sheet stand-alone and fully coupled simulations. The ice sheet model dynamics behave similarly to other hybrid SIA (shallow ice approximation) and SSA (shallow shelf approximation) models, but the West Antarctic Ice Sheet accumulates too much ice using present-day boundary conditions. The coupled model simulations produce global equilibrium ice sheet volumes and calving rates like those observed for present-day boundary conditions. We designed a series of idealized experiments driven by oscillating solar radiation forcing on periods of 20, 50 and 100 kyr in the Northern Hemisphere. These simulations show clear interactions between the climate system and ice sheets, resulting in slow buildup and fast decay of ice-covered areas and global ice volume. The results also show that Northern Hemisphere ice sheets respond more strongly to timescales longer than 100 kyr. The coupling to the atmosphere and sea level leads to climate interactions between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The model can run global simulations of 100 kyr d−1 on a desktop computer, allowing the simulation of the whole Quaternary period (2.6 Myr) within 1 month.

<strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor">Abstract.</strong> We introduce a newly developed global ice sheet model coupled to the Globally Resolved Energy Balance (GREB) climate model for the simulation of global ice sheet evolution on timescales of 100 <span class="inline-formula">kyr</span> or longer (GREB-ISM v1.0). Ice sheets and ice shelves are simulated on a global grid, fully interacting with the climate simulation of surface temperature, precipitation, albedo, land–sea mask, topography and sea level. Thus, it is a fully coupled atmosphere, ocean, land and ice sheet model. We test the model in ice sheet stand-alone and fully coupled simulations. The ice sheet model dynamics behave similarly to other hybrid SIA (shallow ice approximation) and SSA (shallow shelf approximation) models, but the West Antarctic Ice Sheet accumulates too much ice using present-day boundary conditions. The coupled model simulations produce global equilibrium ice sheet volumes and calving rates like those observed for present-day boundary conditions. We designed a series of idealized experiments driven by oscillating solar radiation forcing on periods of 20, 50 and 100 <span class="inline-formula">kyr</span> in the Northern Hemisphere. These simulations show clear interactions between the climate system and ice sheets, resulting in slow buildup and fast decay of ice-covered areas and global ice volume. The results also show that Northern Hemisphere ice sheets respond more strongly to timescales longer than 100 <span class="inline-formula">kyr</span>. The coupling to the atmosphere and sea level leads to climate interactions between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The model can run global simulations of 100 <span class="inline-formula">kyr d^−1</span> on a desktop computer, allowing the simulation of the whole Quaternary period (2.6 <span class="inline-formula">Myr</span>) within 1 month.

We introduce a newly developed global ice sheet model coupled to the Globally Resolved Energy Balance (GREB) climate model for the simulation of global ice sheet evolution on time scales of 100 kyr or longer (GREB-ISM v0.3). Ice sheets and ice shelves are simulated on a global grid, fully interacting with the climate simulation of surface temperature, precipitation, albedo, land-sea mask, topography and sea level. Thus, it is a fully coupled atmosphere, ocean, land and ice sheet model. We test the model in ice sheet stand-alone and fully coupled simulations. The ice sheet model dynamics behave similarly to other hybrid SIA (Shallow Ice Approximation) and SSA (Shallow Shelf Approximation) models, but the West Antarctic Ice Sheet accumulates too much ice using present-day boundary conditions. The coupled model simulations produce global equilibrium ice sheet volumes and calving rates similar to observed for present day boundary conditions. We designed a series of idealised experiments driven by oscillating solar radiation forcing on periods of 20 kyr, 50 kyr and 100 kyr in the Northern Hemisphere. These simulations show clear interactions between the climate system and ice sheets, resulting in slow build-up and fast decay of ice-covered areas and global ice volume. The results also show that Northern Hemisphere ice sheets respond more strongly to time scales longer than 100 kyr. The coupling to the atmosphere and sea level leads to climate interactions between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The model can run global simulations of 100 kyr per day on a desktop computer, allowing the simulation of the whole Quaternary period (2.6 Myrs) within one month.

This paper presents results from seismic measurements of the ice and water column thickness of the Fimbul Ice Shelf in the northeastern Weddell Sea. Seismic reflection measurements were conducted at 183 stations covering most of the ice shelf. Seismic velocities in the ice were derived from refraction measurements at 12 stations, distributed evenly across the area, as well as from temperature and density data from the Fimbul Ice Shelf. Velocities in the water were derived from temperature and salinity data from beneath the Fimbul Ice Shelf. Ice thicknesses were found to vary between 160 m and 550 m with uncertainties up to ±10 m. Water column thicknesses up to 900 m were found within the central ice shelf cavity, and values exceed 2000 m where the ice shelf overhangs the continental slope. Uncertainties in water column thickness are estimated to be ±60 m, and are dominated by the uncertainties in the shape of the seabed. Ice draft and seabed elevation was derived from ice and water column thickness assuming hydrostatic pressure. The resulting map of seabed elevation and water column thickness suggests that the strong westward flowing coastal current will be steered under the ice shelf and thus drive a sub‐ice‐shelf flow. Warm Deep Water does not have direct access to the ice shelf cavity, while relatively cold coastal waters shallower than 500 m will interact closely with the Fimbul Ice Shelf.

Abstract. Melt water from the floating ice shelves at the margins of the southeastern Weddell Sea makes a significant contribution to the fresh water budget of the region. In February 2005 a multi-institution team conducted an oceanographic campaign at Fimbul Ice Shelf on the Greenwich Meridian as part of the Autosub Under Ice programme. This included a mission of the autonomous submarine Autosub 25 km into the cavity beneath Fimbul Ice Shelf, and a number of ship-based hydrographic sections on the continental shelf and adjacent to the ice shelf front. The measurements reveal two significant sources of glacial melt water at Fimbul Ice Shelf: the main cavity under the ice shelf and an ice tongue, Trolltunga, that protrudes from the main ice front and out over the continental slope into deep water. Glacial melt water is concentrated in a 200 m thick Ice Shelf Water (ISW) layer below the base of the ice shelf at 150–200 m, with a maximum glacial melt concentration of up to 1.16%. Some glacial melt is found throughout the water column, and much of this is from sources other than Fimbul Ice Shelf. However, at least 0.2% of the water in the ISW layer cannot be accounted for by other processes and must have been contributed by the ice shelf. Just downstream of Fimbul Ice Shelf we observe locally created ISW mixing out across the continental slope. The ISW formed here is much less dense than that formed in the southwest Weddell Sea, and will ultimately contribute a freshening (and reduction in δ18O) to the upper 100–150 m of the water column in the southeast Weddell Sea.

Glacimarine processes and inductive lithofacies modelling of ice shelf and tidewater glacier sediments based on Quaternary examples

The future ice dynamical contribution to sea level rise (SLR) from 199 ice shelf nourishing drainage basins of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet is simulated, using the British Antarctic Survey Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet Model. Simulations of the grounded ice sheet include response to ice shelf collapse, estimated by tracking thermal ice shelf viability limits in 14 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change global climate models ensemble temperature projections. Grounding line retreat in response to ice shelf collapse is parameterized with a new multivariate linear regression model utilizing a range of glaciological and geometric predictor variables. Multimodel means project SLR up to 9.4 mm sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2200, and up to 19 mm SLE by 2300. Rates of SLR from individual drainage basins throughout the peninsula are similar to 2100, yet diverge between 2100 and 2300 due to individual basin characteristics. Major contributors to SLR are the outlet glaciers feeding southern George VI Ice Shelf, accounting for &gt;75% of total SLR in some model runs. Ice sheet thinning induced by ice‐shelf removal is large (up to ∼500 m), especially in Palmer Land in the southern Antarctic Peninsula, and may propagate as far as 135 km inland. These results emphasize the importance of the ice dynamical contribution to future sea level of the APIS on decadal to centennial timescales.

To make accurate projections of future sea level rise, small-scale ice-sheet and ice-shelf processes must be included in global climate models. Since high-resolution fully-coupled ice-sheet--ocean models are computationally expensive, multi-centennial simulations use lower resolution grids combined with simple parameterizations of the ice-ocean interface. However, these simple parameterizations do not fully reproduce observed melt patterns and have low sensitivity to warmer conditions. Instead, neural networks can be used to improve models by emulating the ice-ocean interactions simulated by high resolution models. We present a framework for training neural networks to emulate small-scale Antarctic basal melt processes within a global low-resolution model (here the NEMO ocean model). We employ a multi-layer perceptron which is trained with a variety of model simulations on a grid with quarter degree resolution, and aim to assess the performance of the neural network, particularly in warmer conditions representative of potential future climate states. This simple framework provides a springboard for future work using more complex architectures, and offers the potential to run computationally affordable long-period global simulations while still capturing crucial ice-shelf--ocean interactions. &amp;#160;

Response of Blue Glacier to a Perturbation in Ice Thickness: Theory and Observation