Thyroid lobectomy as a cost-effective approach in low-risk papillary thyroid cancer versus active surveillance

Cost-effectiveness of active surveillance versus hemithyroidectomy for micropapillary thyroid cancer

Minimalistic management options such as active surveillance and thyroid lobectomy are increasingly being accepted as reasonable management options for properly selected patients with low-risk papillary thyroid cancer. Leveraging technologies developed for the treatment of benign thyroid nodules, ultrasound-guided percutaneous thermal ablation is now being evaluated as a potential additional minimalistic management option for small, intrathyroidal, low-risk papillary thyroid cancer. Published retrospective data on more than 5000 low-risk papillary thyroid cancer patients treated with thermal ablation indicate that with appropriate training and proper patient selection, these technologies can be safely and effectively applied to papillary microcarcinomas. When compared to immediate surgery, thermal ablation appears to have lower complication rates with similar short-term rates of recurrence. Proper patient selection is facilitated by the use of a clinical framework which integrates imaging characteristics, patient characteristics, and medical team characteristics to classify a patient as ideal, appropriate, or inappropriate for minimalistic management options (active surveillance, thyroid lobectomy, or thermal ablation). While retrospective in nature and lacking randomized prospective clinical trial data, currently available data do support the proposition that thermal ablation technologies reliably destroy papillary thyroid microcarcinoma lesions and are associated with clinically acceptable oncologic outcomes when done by experienced teams in properly selected patients.

The global prevalence of thyroid cancer is on the rise. About one-third of newly diagnosed thyroid cancer cases comprise low-risk papillary thyroid cancer (1.5 cm or more minor). While surgical removal remains the prevailing approach for managing low-risk papillary thyroid cancer (LPTC) in patients, other options such as active surveillance (AS), radiofrequency ablation (RFA), microwave ablation (MWA), and laser ablation (LA) are also being considered as viable alternatives. This study evaluated and compared surgical thyroid resection (TSR) versus non-surgical (NS) methods for treating patients with LPTC. The study encompassed an analysis of comparisons between surgical thyroid resection (TSR) and alternative approaches, including active surveillance (AS), radiofrequency ablation (RFA), microwave ablation (MWA), or laser ablation (LA). The focus was on patients with biopsy-confirmed low-risk papillary thyroid cancer (LPTC) of less than 1.5 cm without preoperative indications of local or distant metastasis. The primary outcomes assessed were recurrence rates, disease-specific mortality, and quality of life (QoL). Data were collected from prominent databases, including Cochrane Database, Embase, MEDLINE, and Scopus, from inception to June 3rd, 2020. The CLARITY tool was utilized to evaluate bias risk. The analysis involved odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for dichotomous outcomes, as well as mean differences (MD) and standardized mean differences (SMD) for continuous outcomes. The study is registered on PROSPERO under the identifier CRD42021235657. The study incorporated 13 retrospective cohort studies involving 4034 patients. Surgical thyroid resection (TSR), active surveillance (AS), and minimally invasive techniques like radiofrequency ablation (RFA), microwave ablation (MWA), and laser ablation (LA) were performed in varying proportions of cases. The analysis indicated that specific disease mortality rates were comparable among AS, MWA, and TSR groups. The risk of recurrence, evaluated over different follow-up periods, showed no significant differences when comparing AS, RFA, MWA, or LA against TSR. Patients undergoing AS demonstrated better physical health-related quality of life (QoL) than those undergoing TSR. However, no substantial differences were observed in the overall mental health domain of QoL when comparing AS or RFA with TSR. The risk of bias was moderate in nine studies and high in four. Low-quality evidence indicates comparable recurrence and disease-specific mortality risks among patients with LPTC who underwent ablation techniques or active surveillance (AS) compared to surgery. Nevertheless, individuals who opted for AS exhibited enhanced physical quality of life (QoL). Subsequent investigations are warranted to validate these findings.

Routine prophylactic central neck dissection for low-risk papillary thyroid cancer: A cost-effectiveness analysis

There is a growing trend toward conservative management for certain low-risk cancers. Hospital and health-system factors may play a role in determining how these patients are managed. To explore the contribution of hospitals on patients' odds of nonoperative management for low-risk cancer. In this cross-sectional study, individuals with low-risk papillary thyroid cancer and solitary kidney masses were identified, and those receiving nonoperative management vs surgery were compared. Patients with low-risk thyroid cancer and kidney cancer from 2015 to 2017 eligible for nonoperative management according to National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines within the National Cancer Database were included. Data were analyzed from October 2021 to March 2022. For each facility, the proportion of these patients who received operative and nonoperative management was calculated. A mixed-effects logistic regression model with a hospital-level random effects term was used to calculate factors associated with nonoperative management. Between-hospital variability was assessed using ranked caterpillar plots. There were 19 570 individuals with low-risk thyroid cancer (15 344 women [78.4%]; mean [SD] age, 51.74 [95% CI, 51.39-52.08] years) and 41 403 with kidney cancer (25 253 men [61.0%]; mean [SD] age, 61.93 [95% CI, 61.70-62.17] years). In the group with low-risk thyroid cancer, 2.1% (419 patients) received nonoperative management, and in the group with kidney cancer, 9.5% (3928 patients) received nonoperative management. This varied between hospitals from 1.1% (95% CI, 1.0%-1.1%) in the bottom decile to 10.3% (95% CI, 8.0%-12.4%) in the top decile for low-risk thyroid cancer, and from 4.3% (95% CI, 4.1%-4.4%) in the bottom decile to 24.6% (95% CI, 22.7%-26.5%) in the top decile for small kidney masses. For both cancers, age was associated with increased odds of nonoperative treatment. The hospital-level odds of nonoperative management of thyroid and kidney cancer using unadjusted probabilities (observed proportions) were minimally correlated (Spearman ρ = .33; P < .001). The findings of this study suggest that although health systems factors may be associated with the tendency to pursue nonoperative management, hospital-level factors may differ when comparing unrelated cancers.

21 - Papillary Carcinoma Observation

Long-term quality of life is an important consideration of patients in deciding on disease management options for low-risk papillary thyroid cancer (PTC). We conducted a prospective cohort study of Canadian patients who were diagnosed with small (<2 cm in maximal diameter), low-risk papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) and were given the choice of active surveillance (AS) or immediate surgery. We report the results of a self-administered questionnaire on patient-reported outcomes (PROs) that was completed approximately three years after the initial disease management choice. PROs included overall and subscale scores from questionnaires, including those on quality of life (EORTC QLQ-C30, EORTC THY-34), the Assessment of Survivor Concerns, the Decision Regret Scale, and the Generalized Anxiety Disorder 7-item Scale. We compared the results according to the initial disease management choice and according to the disease management status at the time of questionnaire completion. The participant response rate was 64% (120/188), including 98 individuals who chose AS and 22 who chose immediate surgery. The median duration of follow-up at the time of questionnaire completion was 42 months (interquartile range [IQR] = 39, 46). After statistical adjustment for multiple comparisons, there were no significant differences in the overall scores or subscales of any of the questionnaires between patients who chose AS and those who chose immediate surgery. However, in a secondary analysis, patients who crossed over from AS to surgery experienced greater cancer-related worry as well as overall worry (p = 0.021 for each) and decision regret (p = 0.031) as compared with patients who remained under AS and those who initially chose surgery. We observed that PROs do not significantly differ between patients who chose AS and those who chose immediate surgery a few years after the initial disease management choice. However, patients who crossover from AS to surgery may experience greater cancer-related worry and decision regret.

Background: Current guidelines recommend against thyrotropin (TSH) suppression in low-risk differentiated thyroid cancer patients; however, physician practices remain underexplored. Our objective was to understand treating physicians' approach to TSH suppression in patients with papillary thyroid cancer. Methods: Endocrinologists and surgeons identified by thyroid cancer patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries of Georgia and Los Angeles were surveyed in 2018-2019. Physicians were asked to report how likely they were to recommend TSH suppression (i.e., TSH <0.5 mIU/L) in three clinical scenarios: patients with intermediate-risk, low-risk, and very low-risk papillary thyroid cancer. Responses were measured on a 4-point Likert scale (extremely unlikely to extremely likely). Multivariable logistic regressions were performed to determine physician characteristics associated with recommending TSH suppression in each of the aforementioned scenarios. Results: Response rate was 69% (448/654). Overall, 80.4% of physicians were likely/extremely likely to recommend TSH suppression for a patient with an intermediate-risk papillary thyroid cancer, 48.8% for a patient with low-risk papillary thyroid cancer, and 29.7% for a patient with very low-risk papillary thyroid cancer. Surgeons were less likely to recommend TSH suppression for an intermediate-risk papillary thyroid cancer patient (odds ratio [OR] = 0.36 [95% confidence interval, CI, 0.19-0.69]) compared with endocrinologists. Physicians with higher thyroid cancer patient volume were less likely to suppress TSH in low-risk and very low-risk papillary thyroid cancer patients (i.e., >40 patients per year, OR = 0.53 [CI 0.30-0.96]; OR = 0.49 [CI 0.24-0.99], respectively, compared with 0-20 patients per year). Physicians who estimated higher likelihood of recurrence were more likely to suppress TSH in a patient with very low-risk papillary thyroid cancer (OR = 2.34 [CI 1.91-4.59]). Conclusions: Many patients with low-risk thyroid cancer continue to be treated with suppressive doses of thyroid hormone, emphasizing the need for more high-quality research to guide thyroid cancer management, as well as better understanding of barriers that hinder guideline adoption.

National Survey of Endocrinologists and Surgeons Regarding Active Surveillance for Low-Risk Papillary Thyroid Cancer

In managing early-stage cancers, active surveillance (AS) may be preferentially favored by older individuals. In counseling patients, it is important to understand the durability of AS in the context of age. To evaluate the durability of AS in patients with small, low-risk papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) according to age at the time of choosing AS. This single-center, prospective, long-term follow-up cohort study was conducted at a tertiary care hospital in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Adult patients with small, localized, low-risk PTC less than 2 cm in maximal diameter were enrolled between May 2016 and February 2021. The clinical outcome data were analyzed up to the time point of May 25, 2025, and final data analysis was performed in June 2025. All patients were offered the choice of AS or thyroid surgery. The primary outcome was the overall rate of AS crossover to definitive treatment (treatment completed or recommended by an investigator) and the indications. Cumulative crossover incidence function curves were examined according to age, with death from other causes as the competing risk. A total of 200 patients (155 patients under AS and 45 who had immediate surgery) were followed up for a median (IQR) duration of 71 (59-84) months. Overall mean (SD) age was 52.0 (14.9) years, and 153 patients (76.5%) were female. There were no observed thyroid cancer-related deaths or any distant metastatic disease. The overall crossover rate from AS was 23.9% (37/155; 32 completed treatment, 3 declined surgery for disease progression, and 2 awaiting treatment). Crossover reasons included disease progression (56.8% [21/37]), patient preference (40.5% [15/37]), and ultrasound imaging limitations precluding accurate tumor measurement under active surveillance (tumor border not clearly distinguishable from heterogeneous echotexture of the thyroid parenchyma in a patient with Hashimoto thyroiditis; 2.6% [1/37]). The 5-year age-stratified cumulative overall crossover incidence rates were 41.5% (95% CI, 25.6%-56.8%) in patients younger than 45 years, 20.9% (95% CI, 12.3%-31.1%) in those aged 45 to 64 years, and 5.1% (95% CI, 0.9%-15.2%) in those aged 65 years and older (P < .001). This single-center Canadian cohort study found that AS is a durable long-term management strategy for small, low -risk PTC, particularly in older individuals. Older individuals may be less likely to cross over to surgery after choosing AS.

Background:It is important to understand cancer survivors' perceptions about their treatment decisions and quality of life.Methods:We performed a prospective observational cohort study of Canadian patients with small (<2 cm) low-risk papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) who were offered the choice of active surveillance (AS) or surgery (Clinicaltrials.gov NCT03271892). Participants completed a questionnaire one year after their treatment decision. The primary intention-to-treat analysis compared the mean decision regret scale total score between patients who chose AS or surgery. A secondary analysis examined one-year decision regret score according to treatment status. Secondary outcomes included quality of life, mood, fear of disease progression, and body image perception. We adjusted for age, sex, and follow-up duration in linear regression analyses.Results:The overall questionnaire response rate was 95.5% (191/200). The initial treatment choices of respondents were AS 79.1% (151/191) and surgery 20.9% (40/191). The mean age was 53 years (standard deviation [SD] 15 years) and 77% (147/191) were females. In the AS group, 7.3% (11/151) of patients crossed over to definitive treatment (two for disease progression) before the time of questionnaire completion. The mean level of decision regret did not differ significantly between patients who chose AS (mean 22.4, SD 13.9) or surgery (mean 20.9, SD 12.2) in crude (p = 0.730) or adjusted (p = 0.29) analyses. However, the adjusted level of decision regret was significantly higher in patients who initially chose AS and crossed over to surgery (beta coefficient 10.1 [confidence interval; CI 1.3–18.9], p = 0.02), compared with those remaining under AS. In secondary adjusted analyses, respondents who chose surgery reported that symptoms related to their cancer or its treatment interfered with life to a greater extent than those who chose AS (p = 0.02), but there were no significant group differences in the levels of depression, anxiety, fear of disease progression, or overall body image perception.Conclusions:In this study of patients with small, low-risk PTC, the mean level of decision regret pertaining to the initial disease management choice was relatively low after one year and it did not differ significantly for respondents who chose AS or surgery.

Papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) is increasingly being diagnosed worldwide; yet the mortality remains very low, suggesting widespread overdiagnosis. While traditional management of PTC includes thyroid surgery, sometimes followed by radioactive iodine treatment, there is a global trend towards more conservative approaches for patients who are considered as the lowest risk of recurrence or death from their disease. Active surveillance (AS), once called watchful waiting, involves close follow-up, with the intention to intervene if the cancer progresses, or on patient request. The Kuma Hospital in Japan was the first to introduce AS as an alternative to immediate thyroid surgery for low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinomas (PTMC, <1 cm) in 1993. Accumulated evidence over the years has shown that AS is a safe and effective approach in select patients, with a low rate of cancer progression during AS. Consequently, the Japanese Clinical Guidelines for treatment of thyroid tumor approved AS as a first-line management for patients with asymptomatic PTMC in 2010. Subsequently, the latest 2015 American Thyroid Association guidelines endorsed AS as an alternative approach to immediate surgery for cytologically confirmed very low-risk PTC. However, the acceptance, feasibility and results of AS in patients with low-risk PTC outside of Japan are still largely unknown. Most guidelines recommend that thyroid nodules <1 cm should not be aspirated but instead monitored regardless of the ultrasonographic characteristics. In essence, these patients are also being subjected to AS. Specific recommendations and the role of molecular testing for the optimal selection of PTMC patients for an AS management approach are not well established. Furthermore, research is needed to assess the long-term clinical and psychosocial outcomes in patients with larger tumor sizes (>1 cm) who undergo screening and diagnosis according to the North American guidelines and practices. The first Canadian prospective observational study launched in 2016 is intended to complement the existing data for AS of small low-risk PTC (≤2 cm) and may provide insight into the different approaches in North American and Asian practices. This review intends to summarize the development and the rationale of AS for PTMC and highlights significant differences between North American and Japanese practices.

Patients with low-risk papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) who demonstrate an excellent response to initial therapy have a 2% recurrence rate and 100% disease-specific survival within 10 years. Thus, annual surveillance may be excessive. We hypothesized that less frequent postoperative surveillance in these patients is cost effective. A Markov discrete time state transition model was created to compare postoperative surveillance tapered to 3-year intervals after 5 years of annual surveillance versus conventional annual surveillance in low-risk PTC patients with negative neck ultrasound and stimulated thyroglobulin less than 2 ng/mL 1 year postoperatively. Outcome probabilities, utilities, and costs were determined via literature review, the Medicare Physician Fee Schedule, and Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project data. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess areas of uncertainty. The cost of annual surveillance was $5,239 per patient and yielded 22.49 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). The 3-year strategy cost $2,601 less, but also yielded 0.01 less QALYs. Thus, the incremental cost per QALY of annual surveillance was $260,100. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis demonstrated that less frequent surveillance was more cost effective in 99.98% of 10,000 simulated patients. One-way sensitivity analysis revealed that annual surveillance would be cost effective if the total cost of neck ultrasound could be reduced to $23 or less. Extending postoperative surveillance to 3-year intervals after 5 years of annual surveillance in patients with low-risk PTC with excellent response to therapy is more cost effective than annual surveillance.

Background: Active surveillance (AS) of small, low-risk papillary thyroid cancers (PTCs) is increasingly being considered. There is limited understanding of why individuals with low-risk PTC may choose AS over traditional surgical management.Methods: We present a mixed-methods analysis of a prospective observational real-life decision-making study regarding the choice of thyroidectomy or AS for management of localized, low-risk PTCs <2 cm in maximum diameter (NCT03271892). Patients were provided standardized medical information and were interviewed after making their decision (which dictated disease management). We evaluated patients' levels of decision-self efficacy (confidence in medical decision-making ability) at the time information was presented and their level of decision satisfaction after finalizing their decision (using standardized questionnaires). We asked patients to explain the reason for their choice and qualitatively analyzed the results.Results: We enrolled 74 women and 26 men of mean age 52.4 years, with a mean PTC size of 11.0 mm (interquartile range 9.0, 14.0 mm). Seventy-one patients (71.0% [95% confidence interval 60.9–79.4%]) chose AS over surgery. Ninety-four percent (94/100) of participants independently made their own disease management choice; the rest shared the decision with their physician. Participants had a high baseline level of decision self-efficacy (mean 94.3, standard deviation 9.6 on a 100-point scale). Almost all (98%, 98/100) participants reported high decision satisfaction. Factors reported by patients as influencing their decision included the following: perceived risk of thyroidectomy or the cancer, family considerations, treatment timing in the context of life circumstances, and trust in health care providers.Conclusions: In this Canadian study, ∼7 out of 10 patients with small, low-risk PTC, who were offered the choice of AS or surgery, chose AS. Personal perceptions about cancer or thyroidectomy, contextual factors, family considerations, and trust in health care providers strongly influenced patients' disease management choices.

Background: It is important to understand patient preferences on managing low-risk papillary thyroid cancer (PTC). Methods: We prospectively followed patients with low-risk PTC <2 cm in maximal diameter, who were offered the choice of thyroidectomy or active surveillance (AS) at the University Health Network (UHN), in Toronto, Canada. The primary outcome was the frequency of AS choice (percentage with confidence interval [CI]). Univariate and multivariable analyses were performed to identify predictors of the choice of AS. Results: We enrolled 200 patients of median age 51 years (interquartile range 42-62). The primary tumor measured >1 cm in 55.5% (111/200) of participants. The AS was chosen by 77.5% [71.2-82.7%, 155/200] of participants. In a backwards conditional regression model, the clinical and demographic factors independently associated with choosing AS included: older age (compared with referent group <40 years)-age 40-64 years-odds ratio (OR) 2.78 [CI, 1.23-6.30, p = 0.014], age ≥65 years-OR 8.43 [2.13-33.37, p = 0.002], and education level of high school or lower-OR 4.41 [1.25-15.53, p = 0.021]; AS was inversely associated with the patient's surgeon of record being affiliated with the study hospital-OR 0.29 [0.11-0.76, p = 0.012]. In a separate backwards conditional logistic regression model examining associations with psychological characteristics, AS choice was independently associated with a fear of needing to take thyroid hormones after thyroidectomy-OR 1.24 [1.11-1.39, p < 0.001], but inversely associated with fear of PTC progression-OR 0.94 [0.90-0.98, p = 0.006] and an active coping mechanism ("doing something")-OR 0.43 [0.28-0.66, p < 0.001]. Conclusions: Approximately three-quarters of our participants chose AS over surgery. The factors associated with choosing AS included older age, lower education level, and having a surgeon outside the study institution. Patients' fears about either their PTC progressing or taking thyroid hormone replacement as well as the level of active coping style were associated with the decision. Our results inform the understanding of patients' decisions on managing low-risk PTC. Registration: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT03271892.