Threshold dynamics of a nonlocal and delayed cholera model in a spatially heterogeneous environment.

Abstract

A nonlocal and delayed cholera model with two transmission mechanisms in a spatially heterogeneous environment is derived. We introduce two basic reproduction numbers, one is for the bacterium in the environment and the other is for the cholera disease in the host population. If the basic reproduction number for the cholera bacterium in the environment is strictly less than one and the basic reproduction number of infection is no more than one, we prove globally asymptotically stability of the infection-free steady state. Otherwise, the infection will persist and there exists at least one endemic steady state. For the special homogeneous case, the endemic steady state is actually unique and globally asymptotically stable. Under some conditions, the basic reproduction number of infection is strictly decreasing with respect to the diffusion coefficients of cholera bacteria and infectious hosts. When these conditions are violated, numerical simulation suggests that spatial diffusion may not only spread the infection from high-risk region to low-risk region, but also increase the infection level in high-risk region.