Three-Factor and Five-Factor Models: Implementation of Fama and French Model on Market Overreaction Conditions

Abstract

Objective - Previous research by this author has stated that the market overreaction phenomenon occurs in the Indonesian capital market and the CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model) is able to explain portfolio returns. However, CAPM is still debated along with the emergence of the other asset pricing models, such as the multifactor model proposed by Fama and French. The aim of this research is to test the ability of that model to explain the returns of portfolios formed under market overreaction conditions. Methodology/Technique - The data used in this study is the same as that of the previous research, which includes winner and loser portfolio data formed in market overreaction conditions, particularly on the Indonesian Stock Exchange, between July 2005 and December 2015. The multifactor models used include a three-factor model consisting of the factors of market, firm size, firm value, and a five-factor model with the added factors of profitability and investment. To obtain more accurate results, GARCH econometric models were also used in addition to standard test models for obtaining unbiased results. Findings - This research concludes that market factors (Rm-Rf), firm size (SMB), and firm value (HML), are able to explain the winner and loser portfolio returns well. However, when the factors of profitability (RMW) and investment (CMA) are added into the three-factor model, the RMW and CMA explained the returns negatively and inconsistently when the GARCH model is implemented. Novelty – These results imply that the three-factor model is more accurate than the five-factor model, contrary to the previous findings of Fama and French. Type of Paper - Empirical. Keywords: Fama and French Model; Five-factor Model; Market Overreaction; Three-factor Model; Portfolio. JEL Classification: G11, G12, G14