Three Types of Fertility Behavior in the USSR

Abstract

Fertility in the USSR has followed three patterns: post-transitional transitional and pre-transitional. Post-transitional fertility with low fertility in the 1950s and further declines was evident in Russia the Ukraine Byelorussia Georgia Lithuania Latvia and Estonia. Transitional fertility patterns with fertility decline occurring after 1960 were apparent in Kazakhstan Azerbaijan Moldova and Armenia. Pre-transitional republics with high fertility post-World War II included the Central Asian republics of Uzbekistan Kirghizia Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. Age adjustment to the crude birth rate (CBR) showed that in the selected countries of Estonia Azerbaijan and Tajikistan CBR rose higher in Tajikistan and declined sharper in Azerbaijan compared to unadjusted rates. Indirect standardization based on Coales method showed similar trends. In Estonia the increase in the fertility index during the 1980s was accounted for by a sharp increase in nonmarital fertility. In Azerbaijan the index of fertility declined due to declines in marital fertility and the proportion of married women during the 1970s. During the 1960s and 1980s the decline was due to declines in marital fertility and stabilization or slight increases in the proportion of married women. Tajikistan was similar to Azerbaijan during the 1980s. During the 1960s and 1970s there was an increase in marital fertility. Age specific fertility rates showed the following patterns: 1) countries with increases and then decreases (Central Asian Republics); countries with sustained declines (Kazakhstan Moldova Azerbaijan and Armenia); countries with slow decreases and stabilization (Russia Byelorussia and Lithuania); and countries with stable levels and slight increases and decreases (Ukraine Georgia Latvia and Estonia). In Azerbaijan age specific fertility rates declined in all age groups but the speed of decline was faster in older age groups. In Estonia the fertility curve has remained stable over the past 30 years; births are concentrated in the first two orders. In Azerbaijan higher order births have been significantly reduced. In Tajikistan concentrations by birth order did not occur. Cohort and period fertility has remained stable in Estonia. In Azerbaijan cohort and period fertility showed substantial declines. Period and cohort fertility were high and steady in Tajikistan.