Abstract
The first-time major party nominee can only dominate a US Presidential election across politics and history if that nominee is an issue, and an issue throwing the rest of the election into the shade. In 1860 Lincoln was such a candidate: elect him and you got a civil war, not of his official making but on the insistence of his opponents. For all of William McKinley's big victory in 1896, the entire election turned on his opponent William Jennings Bryan, his issues, his evangelism, his allies, his limits and his cross-country campaign (every single Presidential candidate up to that date (apart from the forgotten James Garfield in 1880) had stayed away from the innumerable meetings: to attend meetings urging votes for him seemed undignified). Al Smith might be thought to dominate the election of 1928 when as the Democratic nominee, he, the Catholic Governor of New York, was bedewed in the holy spittle of innumerable Protestant clergymen and their supporters: but while 1896 might well have gone Democratic (the Democrats had won the popular vote in every
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