The war in Ukraine as a precursor to World War III – a comparative approach in the context of the largest armed conflicts

Maritime transport plays a key role in the global and local economy, accounting for 80% of global trade by volume. This makes smooth operation of the maritime transport essential. However, the sector faces the constant risk of various crises and their potential consequences that may significantly impact and disrupt the movement of goods on local, regional, and global levels. In recent years, two notable crises, namely the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, have been observed. This paper aims to analyse how international crises, such as armed conflicts and pandemics, influence maritime traffic and assess their impact on both global and local economies. A comparison is drawn between the periods before and during the COVID-19 pandemic and before and during the war in Ukraine to exemplify the effects of crises. The findings are then extrapolated to apply to potential future crises. Vessel movements are studied using data collected from Automatic Identification Systems (AIS). In our quantitative approach, we analyse big data using dedicated tools and visualisation techniques to gain insights into specific phenomena. The paper identifies economically significant regions for maritime traffic and examines the impact of crises on their performance. Its unique value lies in its flow-based analysis of changes in maritime traffic. The main conclusion is that China's importance for worldwide maritime traffic is increasing. This makes the global economy heavily reliant on China to a substantially greater extent than it is, for example, on Russia. Consequently, any crisis in the China region could exert a dramatic impact on the global economy. The paper also discusses observations of changes in maritime traffic following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.

The outcome of the conflict in Ukraine will bring fundamental political, military, economic and social consequences, and define global and regional balance of power and fate of number of international organizations, including European Union and NATO. The aim of this paper is to analyze political and military consequences of the first year of the conflict in Ukraine for countries of Central and Eastern Europe, including the Baltic States and further development of trans-Atlantic link for European security, including development of NATO Alliance until 2030. Fundamentally different threat perception in Russian Federation and in NATO, EU countries, and Ukraine led to the beginning of military action of Russian Federation against Ukraine in February 24, 2022. Since then, military conflict in Ukraine has evolved into full-scale war on terrain of Ukraine, and increasingly negative escalation of political, military and economic relationships between Russian Federation and NATO, EU and other actors, bringing parties to nuclear standoff. War in Ukraine has brought substantial political and military endurance test for NATO and European Union. The immediate political consequences of the first year of war in Ukraine have been outlined in NATO Summit in Madrid in summer of 2022 and in NATO Agenda 2030. Continuation of NATO Open Door Policy has led to invitation of Finland and Sweden to join the Alliance thus fundamentally changing security environment in Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltic Sea Region. The Summit also declared to strengthen military posture on the Eastern flank of the Alliance thus countering hypothetical military threat of Russian Federation to the Baltic States and Central and Eastern European states. From the pure military perspective- NATO has substantially increased military support of Ukraine via creation of decision-making platform of Ramstein format as well as increasing understanding of NATO members for need to spend more resources allocated to defense. On the other hand, European Union has granted status of candidate for Ukraine, as well as provided continuous economic and financial support for Ukraine. Moreover, European Union has staged continuous and increasing policy of economic sanctions towards Russian Federation. However, despite substantial increase of political and military coherence and coordination of efforts of NATO and EU countries after the first year of the war in Ukraine, there are mounting challenges and risks. Firstly, increasing economic challenges in EU and NATO member- states which, subsequently, can lead to fundamental political consequences thus leading to diminished political and military support to Ukraine. Secondly, potential challenges for further military support of Ukraine and NATO Open Door Policy. NATO members- Turkey and Hungary-have different point of view on the enlargement of the Alliance and support of Ukraine. Thirdly, global and regional attitudes towards war in Ukraine and, predominantly, Western coalition of support for Ukraine. People’s Republic of China, India, Africa, Central and Latin America, other global and regional actors are mostly neutral towards war in Ukraine thus avoiding political and economic confrontation with Russian Federation. Yet another fundamental challenge: NATO countries are continuing to provide Ukraine with increasingly effective and sophisticated weapon systems which can lead to direct military confrontation between Russian Federation and NATO/The United States in 2023. Taking into account previously mentioned risks and challenges, it is obvious that there are several scenarios of development of war in Ukraine ranging from complete military victory for Ukraine and, subsequently, for the West to complete military victory of Russian Federation in Ukraine via long-term warfare of attrition.

The War in Ukraine has had international order implications, deepening previously existing fault lines between West and East (Leoni & Tzinieris, 2024). As China’s grand strategy does also have an impact on the international order, the conflict in Eastern Europe provides an opportunity to pause and reflect on what this means from a perspective of China’s engagement with the world. While the literature on Chinese grand strategy has been prolific in recent years, lessons from Ukraine have yet to be captured in a systematic manner. Hence, this article examines China’s behaviour in relation to the war in Ukraine to evaluate whether this case study offers valuable insights into China’s grand strategy and foreign policy. The contribution concludes that the war in Ukraine has confirmed that China is not yet willing or capable of taking a role of leadership over international controversies, and thus is not directly challenging US hegemony. However, it is actively seeking to build a sphere of interests that involves non-Western countries and the developing world, as highlighted by our discourse analysis of the communications on the “Ukraine issue” from the Foreign Ministry through its spokespersons. To assess whether there is evidence that the war in Ukraine has provided China with an opportunity to pursue a hegemonic project and whether it has been successful at it so far, the article adopts a critical IR approach and delves into the study of communications by the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokespeople on the “Ukraine issue” as key to building a hegemonic discourse. Articles published from the 24th of February 2022 until the 24th of February 2024 have been extracted from the official website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China and imported into software for qualitative and mixed methods data analysis to examine keywords’ frequency and correlations.

In the article it is analyzed how the Polish media cover the full-scale war in Ukraine, in particularly different information strategies and approaches. There are considered the main themes, accents and trends, which dominate the Polish mass media, as well as possible influence of media coverage on the public opinion in Poland. The main aim of the study was to provide an analysis of how Polish media highlighted and continue to cover full-scale war in Ukraine. The research tasks firstly lied in the research and review of source base, in particular processing scientific works Ukrainian and foreign researchers on the topic of coverage the war in Ukraine by Polish media. Secondly, it was important to highlight the most popular Polish media and to provide review of content of their materials that concerned on Ukraine. Finally, it was provided a comparative genre- thematic analysis of coverage of publications about Ukraine in Polish media, with separation key narratives and trends. Analysis covers both traditional and online media formats, while evaluating their role in formation of public opinion as well as political moods. New genre formats were considered, in particular those which appeared in the Polish media after full-scale invasion of Russia to Ukraine. Also thematic accents in Polish media are highlighted. In the article there are emphasized those media approaches which can influence on polish perception of war in Ukraine. Moreover, it is examined what social and political consequences it may have. The separate attention is assigned to the impact of the media coverage on the informational, political, economic and diplomatic relations between Poland and Ukraine. The conclusion presents reflections on the possible scenarios of development media coverage of war in Ukraine in the future and it`s potential influence on Polish society and international politics.

The war in Ukraine is impacting most countries in the world. Economically, prices of goods and services are rising and manycountries around the world are experiencing energy crises that can be linked to the war in Ukraine. Politically, fracturesare appearing in long-established political structures with many countries around the world deciding on how to respondto the war in Ukraine based on their political, economic, and strategic interests. Surprisingly, Africa is generating a lot ofattention due to the stance of several notable countries – including some seen as key allies of Western countries. Contraryto expectations that most African countries except those ruled by despots would follow the West in condemning and puttingpressure on Putin to end the war, many African countries chose to stay neutral without condemning Russia or supportingresolutions to put pressure on Putin to end the war. This article has explored not only the role of neo-imperialism in shiftingpolitical alliances away from the West as well as a key factor fostering neutrality, but also other factors. It has made use ofUN resolution voting patterns as well as statements made by African leaders as lenses through which the stances of Africanleaders can be understood. The article “The Case for Neutrality: Understanding African Stances on the Russia-Ukraine Conflict” by Olayinka Ajala is translated and published with permission of the author and и Journal of Military and Strategic Studies, where it was originally published in English (Journal of Military and Strategic Studies (2022), vol. 22, iss. 2). Available at: https://www.mapleleafnavy.com/index.php/2023/02/16/journal-of-military-andstrategic-studies-volume-22-issue-2/.

The Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which began in 24 February 2022, is widely covered in the Polish media. One of the forms of journalistic communication is reportage — a factual genre allowing for a multi-aspect presentation of events. The aim of this article is to present the specifics of the war in Ukraine narrative in Polish reportage. The media materials come from the years 2022–2024. The press texts were selected through a search of opinion weeklies “Polityka” and „Newsweek”, while audio reports come from the collection of the Polish Radio Reportage and Documentary Studio and Radio 357. Following the content analysis, four narrative perspectives were identified: everyday life in wartime, military, refugee and solidarity. The analysis of the lexical components shows that the war in Ukraine narrative in Polish press and radio reportage is in-depth, exposing the individual’s personal experience and emotionally engaging. It constitutes a segment of qualitative coverage of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in the Polish media.

This paper discusses geopolitical shifts in the international order with regard to divergent perceptions and interests on the war in Ukraine between western states and the Gulf Cooperation Council states (gcc), specifically the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). These two leading gcc states now prioritise their own national interests by valuing multipolar partnerships, rather than solely relying on strong strategic ties with the West and US. The article aims to explore to what extent the war in Ukraine reveals a new phase in the power balance between the west and the Arab Gulf states. The initial outcomes of the war have already weakened Russia’s global status and forced Moscow to redirect its strategy towards the east, particularly China. This has also led to increased military cooperation between Russian and Iranian, as well as a rapprochement due to the weight of western economic sanctions imposed on both states. Concurrently, China’s significant role in world policy has become more evident through its direct political involvement in the restoration of Saudi-Iranian diplomatic relations, as seen in the agreement signed in Beijing on 10 March 2023. With the war in Ukraine significantly impacting the global energy market and regional power dynamics, the multipolar momentum gives the advantage to Gulf states that realise that this is an opportune time to capitalise on taking autonomous regional initiatives and fostering diversified partnerships from the west to the east.

This article focuses on the analysis of global challenges in the context of international relations, particularly in the areas of peace and security, considering current geopolitical and socio-economic transformations. The authors explore the impact of global challenges on the functioning of international security, with a special emphasis on the evolving priorities of international organizations in responding to emerging threats faced by the international community. The role of international organizations, such as the United Nations, the European Union, NATO, and non-governmental organizations, in shaping strategies for peacebuilding, preventive diplomacy, and humanitarian aid in the face of armed conflicts is critically examined. The article also provides a detailed analysis of the ongoing war in Ukraine and its implications for international relations and security mechanisms at both global and regional levels. Attention is drawn to the importance of effective international cooperation in supporting state sovereignty, protecting human rights, and ensuring peaceful conflict resolution. Amid the war in Ukraine, international organizations play a crucial role in providing humanitarian assistance, monitoring compliance with international law, and facilitating reconciliation processes. The article explores the potential for developing new models of international cooperation that address the needs of countries embroiled in armed conflicts, highlighting the importance of international solidarity in ensuring global stability and security. Furthermore, the study emphasizes that responding effectively to global challenges requires international organizations to adapt swiftly to new circumstances, develop innovative forms of collaboration, and improve mechanisms for addressing emerging threats in global politics. The assessment of the role of international organizations in the contemporary world enables a more precise understanding of their place and function in shaping a new system of international relations, where the interaction between states and international institutions becomes a key condition for maintaining peace and security. In light of the ongoing geopolitical crises, including the war in Ukraine, the article advocates for a reevaluation of the international security architecture, proposing concrete measures for enhancing global peacekeeping efforts. It stresses the need for further strengthening multilateral frameworks and improving the coordination of actions to tackle shared global security concerns such as terrorism, climate change, and the proliferation of weapons.

Does the Russian war in Ukraine presage a change in the rules of the game for secessionisms around the globe? In this article, we explore how the Russian war in Ukraine and the contested international order from which it emerges can affect state contestation and secessionist movements through changing opportunities in the international order. International recognition plays a crucial role in state creation. The Great Powers of a given historical moment have the capacity to raise sovereignty expectations since having “friends in high places” has been essential to obtaining statehood, alongside de facto control of the territory. However, the liberal international order in place since 1945 has given way to a more contested landscape that opens new opportunities for different recognition patterns, which change how secessionists evaluate their optimal strategy for state contestation. The effects have already been notable in conflicts such as Transnistria, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Kosovo, and many other territorial disputes, even “frozen conflicts” over the globe, from Western Sahara to Taiwan. We explore how Russia has created and exploited secessionist claims in eastern Ukraine to justify military aims in the Russian war in Ukraine. Based on a detailed review of the evolution of these claims, we draw different scenarios on the potential effects of a changing world order on state contestation. Our research suggests that the theoretical understanding of secession and secessionists’ optimal strategies need to be reviewed, taking into account the changing contested international order.

Ukraine war is a global security conflict between Russia and the sovereign state of Ukraine. Ukraine war carries grave consequences for global food and energy security. The war deeply ails the peace and prosperity of the world. This research study investigates the impacts of Ukraine war on global security. The study uses descriptive-qualitative methodology for the analysis of the relevant literature regarding global security and Ukraine war. The findings of the study reveal that the relevant literature in the form of research articles and research papers highlight the implications of the war on global peace, prosperity as well as global food and energy security. The discussion educates upon the lines of consequences of Ukraine war for the region and the whole world in terms of security concerns of the states particularly in Europe. Key words: Ukraine war, global security, food security, energy security.

The article is devoted to the research of economic policy for stimulating regional compe­titiveness in conditions of macroeconomic insta­bility, spatial polarization and the conse­quences of the full-scale war in Ukraine. The relevance of the topic is determined by the need to modernize regional development mechanisms in the context of global challenges, in particular the demo­graphic crisis, institutional asymmetry, the digi­tal divide, and structural depletion of peripheral regions. The research is based on the hypothesis that an effective policy to stimulate regional competitiveness is possible provided that the European development vector is integrated with the values of security, sustainable development, institu­tional capacity, digital transformation of public administration, and differentiated consi­deration of spatial asymmetries between regions. The research methodology is based on general scientific and specialized methods, inclu­ding systemic, institutional, comparative, facto­rial, structural-logical, statistical, spatial, cluster, and graph analytical approaches. The research contains the results of a comparative analysis of the regionsʼ competitiveness of Poland, Lithua­nia, and Ukraine in the Lublin Triangle archi­tecture, it analyses geospatial differen­tiation, and identifies transformation vectors of regional development in the context of the war in Ukraine, in particular digital adaptation, demographic response, institu­tional mobile­zation, and mechanisms for stimu­lating inno­va­tion. A conceptual model for aligning sustainable development values with economic policy for managing competitiveness at the regional level is proposed. The results of the research made it possible to develop new con­ceptual approaches to assessing the effecti­veness of economic policy for stimulating regional compe­titiveness and to justify directions for its further improvement

The aim of this article is to analyse the origin and manifestations of the crisis of the liberal international order. The method used consists in showing, with the help of resolutions and other complementary documents, that international law has sometimes been nothing more than an instrument for the quest, the maintenance or the struggle for hegemony. In order to do so, this study uses a comparative approach between the practice developed by both Western and emerging powers. Thus, the results obtained are diverse. Indeed, it would seem that the crisis of the liberal international order is materialised by a succession of crises that affect both the functioning of the institutions of international cooperation and its rules. One of the high points of this crisis seems to be the war in Ukraine, the outcome of which could lead to a profound change, or even a reconfiguration of the world international order.

Brazil’s position towards the War in Ukraine sheds light on fundamental ambiguities of Brazil’s contemporary self-representations. While Brazil has traditionally defined itself in relation to its identification with the West, it has simultaneously recognized and often claimed its significant place in the “Global South”, either as a Latin American country or as part of coalitions balancing against a western-centric order, such as BRICS. These multiple self-representations have favoured foreign policy analyses that emphasize the country´s ambiguous stance in the international order. This article proposes to take Brazil´s non-alignment as an analytical prism to reflect on the in-between spaces and categories that emerge from polarizing narratives of the liberal international order. By adopting the theoretical lens of liminality in International Relations (Rumelili, 2012), the article shows how the narrative on the “new Cold War” in the context of the war in Ukraine (re)produces liminal spaces as different actors, such as Brazil, are unsuccessfully forced into established social categories, which in turn exposes the very instability of polarities in international politics, such as West and East or North and South, and of the liberal world order itself.

Top Gun: The Orbán Government’s Position on the War in Ukraine

International crises such as the war in Ukraine bring about significant changes not only in paradigms, but also in alliance systems. The return of war as a means of regulating international relations has greatly aggravated the interests of Western powers and the African continent, which is at the geopolitical forefront of the war in Ukraine. This study aims to identify the position of the African Union (AU) and its member states on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It highlights the AU’s institutional position at the outset of the conflict, before analyzing the positions of its member states, sometimes in contradiction with the principles of the AU and the United Nations (UN), calling for the immediate cessation of the war initiated by Russia. Similarly, the study shows that African countries, in their mixed positions have a more cynical view of a world order whose rules seem to be determined by the West and it is this difference in perspective that may explain the indulgence of some African states towards Russia.