The Wagner Revolt: Implications for Russia, Lessons for the West

Abstract

The Wagner Group’s revolt against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime, though contained, holds important implications for Russia and lessons for the West. The revolt was a full-scale crisis for the regime, reflected Putin’s extraordinary misreading of domestic realities, undermined his rule’s core rationale of bringing stability and security to Russia, exposed the brittleness of the Russian state, revealed weak support of Russian elites, demonstrated his need for mediation from a despised foreign leader, and brought to the surface the strains that the Russia–Ukraine war has imposed on the Russian polity. The two main takeaways for the West are that Putin chose compromise rather than escalation to deal with the crisis, and that over time the war is likely to impose deeper strains on Russia. It is now less clear than ever not only that Russia can win the war, but also that the regime that launched it will survive intact.