Abstract
AbstractThe paper assesses the value of USDA information in the electronic corn futures markets. While recent research has documented large price volatility spikes after USDA announcements, increased volatility does not directly translate into value. Using multiple newly developed risk‐premium measures and intraday data, we extend the Carter and Galopin approach based on estimating the risk‐adjusted profits that accrue to advanced USDA information. Using the 2010–2020 period, the analysis demonstrates that USDA announcement surprises have economic value, with WASDE surprises from NASS‐WASDE joint events being always valuable under all risk preferences. While the value is sensitive to these preferences, risk is relatively small because prices usually move in the direction of the market surprise which minimises losses. NASS surprises also contain value, though less than WASDE and only for the less risk averse traders. While overall risk is generally small, the intensified volatility right after the announcement points to the presence of noise and to the inadequacy of inferring the value of public information through price variability alone.
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